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2023 MLB draft lottery: Date, time, odds for No. 1 pick, and everything else to know

Which team will wind up with the No. 1 pick?

A view of the draft stage before the 2023 MLB Draft at Lumen Field on July 09, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images

The 2023 MLB Winter Meetings are in full swing, and already we’ve seen some significant moves. As of Tuesday morning the overwhelming majority of our top 50 free agents remain unsigned, so there’s plenty more action to come before everyone departs Nashville on Wednesday.

But wheeling and dealing isn’t the only thing to monitor on Tuesday. There’s also MLB’s second-ever MLB Draft Lottery, as all 18 non-postseason teams have a non-zero chance of landing the No. 1 pick next summer. For more than 50 years, the league simply set teams in reverse order of the previous year’s standings. As part of the new CBA implemented last year, however, that’s no longer the case.

The Pirates won the inaugural lottery last year, and were awarded with LSU phenom Paul Skenes. Who will the ping-pong balls favor on Tuesday night? Let’s break down everything you need to know.

2023 MLB Draft Lottery

Date

The Draft Lottery will take place on Tuesday, Dec. 5, at 3:30 p.m. ET. The results will be televised on MLB Network during a half-hour show that begins at 5:30 p.m. ET.

Lottery odds

The 18 non-playoff teams each have a shot at the No. 1 pick, though the worst teams will of course have the highest odds. Here are the odds to land this year’s No. 1 selection in the 2024 draft, per MLB.com:

Athletics: 18.3%
Royals: 18.3%
Rockies: 18.3%
White Sox: 14.7%
Cardinals: 8.3%
Angels: 6.1%
Mets: 4.3%
Pirates: 3.0%
Guardians: 2.0%
Tigers: 1.6%
Red Sox: 1.2%
Giants: 1.0%
Reds: 0.9%
Padres: 0.7%
Yankees: 0.6%
Cubs: 0.4%
Mariners: 0.2%
Nationals: 0.0%

Teams that pay into revenue sharing cannot land in the lottery in back-to-back years, so the Nationals, who had the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, are ineligible despite finishing with baseball’s fifth-worst record.

Picks 19-30 are set

The lottery determines the top six picks, with the next 12 picks landing in reverse order of the standings. The 12 postseason teams are then ordered by when they get eliminated and their revenue-sharing status. The order goes as follows: Wild Card Series losers, Division Series losers, Championship Series losers, World Series loser, World Series winner. Within each of those groups, teams will be sorted by revenue-sharing status, with payees selecting before non-payees. If two or more teams have identical winning percentages, the order will be determined by winning percentage in the prior season, with any remaining ties resolved by each team’s respective winning percentage in each preceding year until the tie is broken. Here’s how things shake out for 2024:

19. Marlins (.519 winning percentage)
20. Brewers (.568)
21. Rays (.611)
22. Blue Jays (.549)
23. Twins (.537)
24. Orioles (.623)
25. Dodgers (.617)
26. Braves (.642)
27. Phillies (.556)
28. Astros (.556)
29. D-backs (.519)
30. Rangers (.556)

Top prospects for 2024 draft

With an entire college and high school season set to be played between now and next July, it’s still way, way too early know who will go No. 1 overall in 2024. Two-way Florida star Jac Caglianone, Wake Forest righty Chase Burns and high schooler Cam Caminiti (the cousin of late big-leaguer Ken) are among the names expected to be on the top of teams’ boards.