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Best DFS lineup strategy for Warriors vs. Nuggets Christmas Day NBA Showdown

We take a look at the Showdown contest on DraftKings for the Christmas Day matchup between the Warriors and Nuggets, giving you Captain’s Picks and who to fade.

Dario Saric #20, Trayce Jackson-Davis #32 and Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors high five during the game against the Portland Trail Blazers on December 23, 2023 at Chase Center in San Francisco, California. Photo by Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images

The Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets match up on Christmas Day. This will be the second of four games these teams will play this season, and Denver won the first game in November by three. The rematch is a featured Showdown contest at DraftKings DFS. Here is how we are handling the matchup, with suggestions for Captain, flexes, and some fades.

Captain’s Picks

Nikola Jokic ($17,700) - Jokic has as much value as anyone does in DFS. While he is adept at rebounding and scoring, his addition of assists is the proverbial cherry on top. Jokic averages 26.4 points, 12.4 boards and 9.2 assists per game. This translates to an average of 61.3 fantasy points per game. Jokic has a decent matchup against Golden State and has the most upside among anyone playing.

Jamal Murray ($13,200) - Murray has only played in 17 games this season but has carved out his role as the orchestrator of the Denver offense. The Nuggets’ point guard averages 19.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. He’s coming off a double-double against the Charlotte Hornets with 20 points and 12 rebounds to go along with five assists and three steals. While it may feel like Steph Curry should be a Captain, I think Murray is actually the point guard to go within the matchup.

FLEX Plays

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,800) - Caldwell-Pope is probable to play with a back injury. He has played in 29 games this season and averages 10 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists for 20.7 DFS points per game. Golden State allows the ninth-most DFS points per game to opposing shooting guards, giving KCP a good matchup.

Dario Saric ($4,600) - Saric is a solid role player for the Warriors. He comes off the bench but is averaging 20.8 minutes per game to go along with 10.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, and two assists. Saric has played at least 15 minutes in each of his last 10 games and added eight points and five rebounds off the bench in the team’s last game.

Fades

Chris Paul ($7,200) - Paul is usually a good option for DFS. Despite backing up Curry, the Warriors have gone with a smaller lineup, bringing Paul off the bench and pushing Curry down to the No. 2 position in the lineup. Still, Denver allows the third-fewest DFS points per game to opposing point guards, and I’d expect Curry to be the one of the two to have the relevant game.

Andrew Wiggins (5,800) - Wiggins is questionable for the game with an illness. He has missed his last two games, so even if he is able to play, he may not be playing at 100%. Denver’s defense does a good job of limiting small forwards, and they are allowing the sixth-fewest DFS points per game to the position.

The Outcome

These teams played a close game back in November, and this should be more of the same. Denver has won four in a row, while Golden State has notched five consecutive wins. The Warriors are finding their stride, but the Nuggets continue finding ways to win. I think Golden State keeps it close, but Denver ends up picking up a big win.

Final score: Nuggets 118, Warriors 114