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ACC Championship Game Preview: Louisville vs. FSU

We make a pic for the ACC Championship.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 25 Florida State at Florida Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The No. 4 Florida State Seminoles face the No. 15 Louisville Cardinals in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday, December 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET, and the game will air on ABC. FSU enters as a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 48.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Louisville (10-2, 7-1) No. 22 FPI, No. 23 SP+

The Cardinals kicked off their season strong, but after a huge home win over Notre Dame, a tough loss to Pitt all but killed their chances at a CFP bid. Nevertheless, they went undefeated for the remainder of conference play, grabbing wins over Miami and Duke, before falling to Kentucky in rivalry week.

Louisville lost 38-31 to the Wildcats in Week 13. Running backs Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo were extremely limited on the ground and held back from their usual major contributions to the Cardinals offense. Quarterback Jack Plummer passed for two touchdowns and an interception in the loss. Plummer has 21 passing TDs and 11 interceptions so far this season.

The Cardinals are out of contention for the CFP with two losses, but are in the hunt for what would be the program’s first ever ACC title. Louisville joined the ACC in 2012.

FSU (12-0, 8-0 ACC) No. 9 FPI, No. 6 SP+

Florida State was the team to beat in the ACC this year, surpassing Clemson in the role. The Seminoles were rolling through conference play with a quarterback who looked like a legitimate Heisman candidate until it all came crashing down. QB Jordan Travis broke his leg in Week 12, rendering him out for the remainder of the season and sending backup Tate Rodemaker in. And now Rodemaker is questionable as well.

FSU has wins over Miami, Clemson, and LSU this season, and most recently beat Florida on the road, 24-15. The Noles’ defense played a major part in the win, holding Florida to 86 passing yards and grabbing an interception. Rodemaker was passable with 134 passing yards, no TDs, and no INTs.

This is not the same Florida State team without Travis, but Rodemaker is no rookie. He has plenty of field experience, and if FSU goes undefeated and wins the ACC Championship, the committee will have no choice but to reward them with a CFP bid this season. But can they do it twice without Travis?

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Florida State -1.5
Total: 45.5
Moneyline: FSU -120, Louisville +100

Weather

58 degrees, rain, 6 MPH winds SSW

Don’t forget before you bet

  • FSU is 7-5 ATS, and Louisville is 6-6
  • FSU ranks 14th in fewest passing yards allowed per game, and Louisville ranks 10th in fewest rushing yards allowed per game

Best bets for ACC Championship Game

Under 45.5

It’s hard to say what this FSU team will continue to look like without Travis, but I think we’re going to see a lower-scoring game here. FSU may try to play it a bit too safe offensively with their sights set on a CFP bid but will be out for blood on the defensive side of the ball. It’s hard to say which way the spread will swing here without Travis, but I like the under in this matchup.