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NFL MVP power rankings, Brock Purdy takes big lead in odds heading into Week 16

The 49ers are rolling and Brock Purdy is leading the way. If they keep it up, he has the MVP for the taking.

Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers drops back to pass against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

The MVP race has a clear leader and he’s Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy. Purdy put up another strong outing as the 49ers beat the Cardinals 45-29 to go 11-3. They come out of Week 15 with the No. 1 playoff seed still in hand. The No. 2 betting favorite for the MVP crown, Lamar Jackson, led his team to a 23-7 in over the Jaguars to also go 11-3 and take control of the No. 1 seed.

A dud from Dak Prescott and the Cowboys against the Bills hurt his recently surging MVP case in Week 15, while Josh Allen got the win, which was needed for his MVP case. Jalen Hurts had his flu game on Monday Night Football against the Seahawks, but the Eagles ended up losing for the third straight time.

Brock Purdy (-190)

Purdy will get docked for not having the “star power” of his offensive teammates, but Mr. Irrelevant’s numbers speak for themselves, as he leads the league in QBR, yards per attempt, TD passes, yards per completion, and TD to interception ratio. He’s near the top in almost every other meaningful statistic beyond that as well. He does benefit from his receivers great yards after the catch numbers and Kyle Shanahan’s offensive ingenuity, but he’s not just dinking and dunking, as he is second in air yards per completion in the league. He’s playing great, has helped his team become the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl and has the stats to back up his great play.

But this is the Not For Long league, and a poor performance next Monday night against the Ravens could turn the tide against him, especially with Lamar Jackson on the other side.

Lamar Jackson (+475)

Jackson’s passing numbers aren’t up there with Purdy’s, but when you add in his rushing numbers, things get a little closer. The Ravens beat the Jaguars in Week 15 to go 11-3 and the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Jackson put moves on Jaguars defenders that Brock Purdy couldn’t do on Madden. Does that mean Jackson should be the MVP over him? Of course not. Thankfully for Jackson, he gets a chance to make his case for MVP against the 49ers in San Francisco. If he outplays Purdy and leads his team to a win, he will surge in the MVP odds and for good reason.

Week 15 MVP power rankings

1. Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers
2. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
3. Josh Allen, QB, Bills
4. Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
5. Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles

Week 16 matchups

As we’ve talked about in this post, the 49ers-Ravens game will be huge for the MVP race on Christmas. Purdy would likely still be the odds on favorite, even if his team loses, but it would likely close the gap.

Josh Allen faces a Chargers team that gave up last week, so he can’t prove much, but could pad his already big stats and get a much needed win. He will likely need to get his team in the playoffs to garner MVP support.

Dak Prescott gets a good shot to redeem himself in Miami. A win would show he can beat good teams and do it on the road, which has been tough for the Cowboys this season.

Jalen Hurts doesn’t get anymore matchups that can really help him now. Losing to the 49ers and Cowboys and now the Seahawks this late in the season is a blotch on his MVP resume and now he only can prove his worth against the Giants and Cardinals.