We’re into the winter months, so that means more weather to account for in Week 15. That may not be the case most of the game over/unders are low. It could just be bad football. That is exactly the case, at least for the Sunday main slate on DraftKings. We’ve got a few meaningful games on Saturday this week (3 to be exact). But the Sunday slate offers more bad football and low totals. So there are going to be a few games that stand out as chalky stacks. We’ll go over those but also throw in a potential surprise stack.
NFL DFS Picks: Game Stacks, Week 15
Rams vs. Commanders
Matthew Stafford ($6,000)
Cooper Kupp ($7,800)
Puka Nacua ($7,300)
Jahan Dotson ($4,700)
The Rams-Commanders game is technically inside in Los Angeles, so playing conditions should be pristine. The Rams’ offense has been on fire lately and should be motivated to stay in the playoff picture after a tough loss to Baltimore in Week 14.
This past week, Kupp and Nacua were both on the field for well over 90% of the offensive snaps. Stafford has gone for over 22 fantasy points on DK in each of the past three weeks. The two wideouts combined for nearly 200 yards on 13 catches with a TD in Week 14. The Commanders have the worst secondary in the NFL and are allowing the most passing yards per game (266) this season.
The L.A. stack will be super chalky given the prices on Kupp and Nacua. So we’ll run it back with Dotson, who shouldn’t be on many rosters this week. He’s in a good spot though. The Commanders should be trailing and Dotson has played over 80% of the offensive snaps in seven of the past nine games. Dotson should see a good amount of targets in a good game environment.
Cowboys vs. Bills
Josh Allen ($8,200)
CeeDee Lamb ($9,200)
Gabriel Davis ($5,500)
Jake Ferguson ($4,800)
Vegas either believes the Bills are better than they are or isn’t completely sold on the Cowboys. Dallas has won five games in a row in mostly dominant fashion and are 2.5-point underdogs on the road in Buffalo. The Bills haven’t suffered a non-tough loss all season and have been treading water to stay in the playoff picture. This game is virtually a must-win for the Bills, so that competitiveness may be the reason for the line. The over/under is at 51, which is the highest for Week 15 on DKSB.
But you’d think the high total would suggest the Cowboys build a lead and the Bills have to play catchup. Not these two teams trading blows. If that’s the case, we want the better QB, which is Allen. Well, he’s at least a better fantasy QB right now. Fading Stefon Diggs is tough but you’ll have trouble paying up for both Diggs and Lamb. And this doesn’t feel like a spot you can fade Lamb given what he’s done this season.
We’re going to use Davis because that differentiates the stack. It’s super risky, though. Davis is one of the most inconsistent WRs relative to his ceiling in the NFL. One week Davis is busting. The next he’s scoring a long TD and putting up 20+ fantasy points. The Cowboys should have their focus on Diggs, which could free up Davis for a long play. Bills RB James Cook ($6,300) also isn’t a bad option in this stack with Allen.
The final leg is Ferguson, who feels undervalued at this price point. Somehow it’s his highest all season despite scoring double-digit fantasy points in five of the past seven games. Ferguson is on pace to be a top-10 TE on the season and should be targeted heavily if the game script plays out the way Vegas thinks.
Texans vs. Titans
Derrick Henry ($6,900)
Titans D/ST ($3,700)
Chig Okonkwo ($2,900)
This is basically just a Titans stack. If Texans QB C.J. Stroud is able to return and clear concussion protocol this week, we’d rethink things a bit. This stack also depends on WR Nico Collins being healthy. If both Stroud and Collins are sidelined, you can roll out the stack above for Tennessee. The Titans are coming off an impressive comeback win over the Dolphins. Henry has scored at least two TDs in three straight games. RB Tyjae Spears ($4,800) also isn’t a bad option. The Titans D/ST would be a very appealing tourney play if Stroud is out and QB Davis Mills has to start. Okonkwo isn’t a bad pairing given his increased productivity the past three weeks. You could run back WR Noah Brown ($5,000) or look at a depth WR for Houston.