Update: Durant has been ruled out for this game, and the lines have shifted a bit. The Suns are now 2-point favorites and the total is set at 231.5. The Warriors should still cover +2, and I still like the under with Durant’s absence only seeing the line fall three points.
The Golden State Warriors (10-12) will go on the road to take on the Phoenix Suns (12-10) on Tuesday, December 12. Tip-off from the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona is set for 10 p.m. ET, and the game will air on TNT.
The injury report for Golden State is light, with only one player listed. Shooting guard Gary Payton II has been ruled out with a right calf strain. Reports suggest that he is making good progress and is set to be re-evaluated this week.
Phoenix has already ruled out two players and has listed another as questionable. SG Grayson Allen is out with a right groin strain, and small forward Nassir Little is out with a concussion and remains in the league’s concussion protocol. Star power forward Kevin Durant is questionable with a left ankle sprain. Bradley Beal, who has missed significant time with a back injury, is set to make his return to the court for the Suns.
The Suns are the 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. Phoenix has -155 moneyline odds, and Golden State is the +130 underdog. The point total is set at 234.5.
Warriors vs. Suns, 10 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Warriors +3.5
If Durant misses the game, I’d expect the spread to shift in favor of Golden State. A four-point swing is a lot for one player, but Durant would be replaced by Keita Bates-Diop or Yuta Watanabe, giving Draymond Green an advantage down low. This will be the third of four matchups between these teams this season. Phoenix won the first by four and the second by eight.
The Suns are the fifth-worst team against the spread after a loss and the ninth-worst team covering at home. The Warriors are 8-3 ATS on the road, the second-best mark in the league. Durant missed Phoenix’s last game, but even if he plays, I think Golden State covers.
Over/Under: Under 234.5
Despite having some marquee players in their lineups, the Warriors (115.5) and Suns (115.1) are scoring the 11th and 12th most points per game in the league. The first game between these teams ended with 212 points scored, and 238 were scored in the rematch. Phoenix has hit the over in 63.6% of its games, while Golden State has hit the over in 54.6% of its games.
The Suns may have Durant back on Tuesday, but he could be playing at less than 100%. None of Phoenix’s last seven games have finished with more than 230 combined points. I’m taking the under.