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Who’s improving, who’s falling in Super Bowl 58 odds after Week 14

The NFC has a new No. 1 seed and the AFC is settling into two co-favorites after Week 14. We break down what it all means for Super Bowl 58 odds.

Michael Gallup #13 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates with teammates after catching a touchdown pass during the second quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium on December 10, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images

The NFL has one month left until the playoffs arrive and the playoff picture is becoming all the more muddied. Ties atop the conferences leave the No. 1 seed up for grabs heading into Week 15. Parity or mediocrity — depending on whom you ask — has resulted in the wild card in both leagues likely coming down to the wire in both conferences. It’s going to make for a wild close to December.

Who had the best Week 14 performance?

The Dallas Cowboys impressed with a 33-13 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas moved into first place with the win thanks to a slight edge in divisional record, but there’s a good chance the tiebreaker moves further down the list over the final four weeks.

The San Francisco 49ers rolled over the Seattle Seahawks 28-16 and thanks to the Eagles loss now have the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers, Cowboys, and Eagles are all tied and San Francisco has the head-to-head sweep of both teams. San Francisco is the Super Bowl favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook with +250 odds. Philadelphia is +650 and Dallas is +800.

In the AFC, the top seed is turning into a two-team race heading into Monday Night Football. The Baltimore Ravens held off a tough Los Angeles Rams squad in overtime to improve to 10-3. If the Miami Dolphins handle their business against the Tennessee Titans, they’ll move back into the No. 1 spot thanks to the conference record tiebreaker. The Dolphins and Ravens face off in Week 17, which likely will decide the No. 1 seed. Miami is +600 to win the Super bowl while Baltimore is +650.

Which favorites have work to do?

The Kansas City Chiefs suddenly find themselves in a bit of a tailspin. They lost 20-17 at home to the Buffalo Bills and have lost four of their past six to drop to 8-5. Notably, they now only lead the AFC West by one game as the Denver Broncos are on a roll with six wins over their past seven games.

Similarly, the Jacksonville Jaguars have lost two straight including a 31-21 loss in Week 14 to the Cleveland Browns. Trevor Lawrence is dealing with an ankle injury and their defense is playing atrociously of late. It doesn’t get any easier in Week 15 as they host the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.

Which 7-6 team is the most dangerous in the AFC?

The Broncos are the team that is surging right now and are back up to +8000 after dipping to as bad as +25000. The biggest issue is in the tiebreakers as there are three 7-6 teams ahead of them thanks to conference record. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts hold the final two wild card berths, with the Houston Texans in between Denver and the playoffs. Add in the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills right behind Denver and it’s going to be a wild close to the season.

You can view full Super Bowl odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Below is a rundown of Super Bowl odds from when they opened in February, Week 1, this past week, and headed into the upcoming weekend.

Super Bowl odds 2023-24

Team Feb 12 Week 1 Week 18 Wild Card
Team Feb 12 Week 1 Week 18 Wild Card
San Francisco 49ers +750 +1000 +220 +220
Baltimore Ravens +2200 +1800 +300 +310
Buffalo Bills +700 +900 +800 +650
Dallas Cowboys +1400 +1400 +850 +750
Kansas City Chiefs +600 +600 +950 +1000
Philadelphia Eagles +900 +650 +1100 +1600
Miami Dolphins +3000 +2500 +1300 +1600
Detroit Lions +3000 +2200 +2000 +1800
Cleveland Browns +4000 +3500 +3500 +3500
Houston Texans +20000 +20000 +8000 +4000
Los Angeles Rams +3500 +10000 +6000 +4500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6000 +10000 +12000 +6000
Green Bay Packers +3000 +6500 +18000 +9000
Pittsburgh Steelers +5500 +5000 +25000 +12000
Jacksonville Jaguars +2800 +3000 +3500 OTB
Indianapolis Colts +15000 +15000 +10000 OTB
Seattle Seahawks +7000 +3000 +12000 OTB
New Orleans Saints +5000 +3000 +20000 OTB
Atlanta Falcons +7500 +6000 +50000 OTB
Minnesota Vikings +4500 +3500 +80000 OTB
Cincinnati Bengals +900 +1100 OTB OTB
Denver Broncos +3000 +4500 OTB OTB
Chicago Bears +8000 +5000 OTB OTB
Las Vegas Raiders +4000 +8000 OTB OTB
New York Giants +4000 +6500 OTB OTB
Los Angeles Chargers +2200 +2500 OTB OTB
New York Jets +2800 +1600 OTB OTB
Washington Commanders +7000 +6500 OTB OTB
Tennessee Titans +7500 +8000 OTB OTB
Arizona Cardinals +20000 +40000 OTB OTB
Carolina Panthers +5500 +8000 OTB OTB
New England Patriots +6000 +6500 OTB OTB