Virginia vs. Louisville picks, best bets for Week 11 matchup

The Virginia Cavaliers take on the No. 11 Louisville Cardinals in an ACC matchup on Thursday, November 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, and the game will air on ESPN.

Virginia (2-7, 1-4 ACC) has put together something of a comeback effort in the second half of this season. After starting out 0-5, they grabbed a win over North Carolina and took Miami to overtime. While the season might be a wash, there are signs of hope. In their latest game, they fell 45-17 against Georgia Tech. Quarterback Tony Muskett was injured early in the game, and backup Anthony Colandrea passed for 200 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in the loss. Muskett is considered day-to-day.

Louisville (8-1, 5-1 ACC) are in contention for a conference championship as they finish out their season. Aside from an odd loss to Pittsburgh in October, the Cardinals have not been beaten, and most recently shut out Duke and beat Virginia Tech 34-3. In their win over the Hokies, they shut down opposing QB Kyron Drones, who has been a threat this season. Cardinals running back Isaac Guerendo finished the day with 146 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

Here’s everything you need to know and a pick for the game.

SP+ Rankings

Virginia: 93 overall, 104 offense, 68 defense
Louisville: 20 overall, 32 offense, 17 defense

Injury update

Virginia

TE Sackett Wood Jr - Probable (undisclosed)
RB Mack Hollins - Out indefinitely (neck)
QB Tony Muskett - Questionable (foot)
RB Xavier Brown - Out (arm)
S Antonio Clary - Out (ankle)
LB Langston Long - Out indefinitely (foot)

Louisville

DB Jarvis Brownlee Jr. - Questionable (undisclosed)
WR Jamari Thrash - Questionable (undisclosed)
OL Renato Brown - Out for season (undisclosed)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

Virginia: 6-3 ATS
Louisville: 5-4 ATS

Total in 2023

Virginia: Over 5-2-2
Louisville: Over 3-5-1

Team Pace

Virginia: 25.5 seconds per play
Louisville: 28.3 seconds per play

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Louisville -20.5
Total: 50.5
Moneyline: Louisville -1350, UVA +800

Weather

54°F, Cloudy, 15% chance of precipitation, 3 MPH winds

Our Best Bet for Virginia vs. Louisville

Louisville -20.5

The Cardinals have been steamrolling opponents as of late, and with Virginia’s starting QB questionable, this Louisville defense should have a field day. They have allowed just three points in the last eight quarters of football played, and Virginia’s quick run against top teams seems to have ended as of last week.