Welcome to Week 13 of the NFL season! Today we’ll take a look at some value plays for the Thursday nigh showdown between the Cowboys and Seahawks. These are two teams that would be in the NFC playoffs if they were to stop the count today, but they are also two teams going in different directions. The Seahawks have now lost three of their last four games, while the Cowboys have won their last three and five of their last six. The Cowboys have faced some weak competition, but they are beating that competition handily. The Seahawks need this game more, but the Cowboys aren’t in a spot they can let up.
Today we’ll take a look at some of the value plays available to you in tonight’s DraftKings Showdown between the Cowboys and Seahawks.
Value flex options
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks ($6,800)
Charbonnet was shut down last week in his start against the 49ers with Kenneth Walker out. The good news is that he had 18 touches despite the 49ers rolling. The Cowboys run defense is one of the best in the league, but Charbonnet does have 10 receptions over his last two games. His efficiency has been bad and it should continue to be bad in a tough matchup, put I don’t love Seattle’s offense overall in this game and if you can get a player who realistically could see 18 touches, receptions and goal line usage for a decent value, he’s probably worth rostering, especially when you’re forced to roster someone from the Seahawks.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys ($6,200)
Ferguson needs a touchdown to be worth rostering most weeks, like the majority of tight ends. The good news is that Ferguson has 18 red zone targets, which ties for the team lead with CeeDee Lamb. He hasn’t scored in the last two weeks, but did have three in a row the weeks before that. I like his chances to find the end zone this week.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks ($5,200)
Smith-Njigba has a tremendous amount of talent, but isn’t getting enough opportunities to be a consistent producer in fantasy. Head coach Pete Carroll did say they needed to get him more looks after he made a spectacular catch last week, providing one of the few sparks in a blowout by the 49ers. He’s shown a good enough floor to not be completely boom or bust in this showdown, but if he were to give you his average game, you’d be underwhelmed. This week I am counting on the coaching staff getting him more opportunities, as they will need a spark in a game they are 9-point underdogs on the road.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Cowboys ($4,200)
Dowdle will likely get a lot of attention for this Showdown due to his receiving touchdown last week and the poor overall numbers Tony Pollard has seen this season. Unfortunately for Dowdle, Pollard has put up good numbers the last two weeks and Dowdle hasn’t seen any bump in snap rate. His touchdown was a bit fluky, as he had just four opportunities in Week 12. But, he’s also shown he is a good player, and before last week, he had 12 and 10 opportunities in Week 11 and 12 blowouts. If we could ink in 10-to-2 touches, he’d likely be a must start, but as it is, we’ll need the Cowboys to blow out the Seahawks for him to have reasonable value.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, Cowboys ($3,000)
Tolbert likely has more upside than Michael Gallup, as he’s seen more snaps and targets than Gallup over the last three games and is $800 cheaper to roster. He also appears to have a bit more juice when looking at upside as a player. He’s safer than Kavontae Turpin and appears slightly safer than Gallup.
Kavontae Turpin, WR, Cowboys ($2,600)
Turpin is extremely boom or bust, as seen by his one target last week which went for a 34-yard touchdown. He had a similar line against the Eagles in Week 9 when he also had one target and one touchdown. His ability as a kick returner is incorporated into the offense sparingly, but he has the speed to strike quickly. He shouldn’t be a part of single entry or cash builds, but he’s worth a flyer in multi-lineup tournament builds.
Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Cowboys ($1,600)
Schoonmaker is a cheap punt play with some touchdown upside. He’s seen five red zone targets on the season compared to 4 for Gallup and 3 for Tolbert. But, unlike them, he is completely reliant on a touchdown, where Tolbert and Gallup could be worthwhile for a long reception.
Will Dissly, TE, Seahawks ($1,400)
If you are looking for a slightly cheaper punt play, Dissly has seen six targets over his last three games despite dealing with a hip injury last week. He is listed as questionable, but practiced in full on Wednesday.
D/ST and Kickers
Cowboys D/ST, ($5,600)
The Cowboys’ D/ST isn’t exactly cheap, and for good reason. They have some truly spike games with DK points hitting 37, 15, 27, 15, 21, and 16 out of 11 games. They’ve also had seven defensive touchdowns, with Daron Bland completing a record five pick-sixes so far this season. Geno Smith hasn’t played well of late and the Cowboys upside here remains sky high.
Kickers Jason Meyers ($4,400)/Brandon Aubrey ($4,800)
Both Aubrey and Meyers have been excellent this season and both should be possibilities for your lineups. Meyers has shown a bit more upside, as the Seahawks haven’t been as efficient in the red zone. The trouble is, the Cowboys defense has been extremely good at limiting field goal attempts, allowing 14 attempts in 11 games, while the Seahawks have allowed 22 in the same number of games. Overall, the Seahawks have given up 7.4 fantasy points per game to kickers, while the Cowboys have allowed 4.6.
I’d still likely lean toward Meyers, as I think he could be asked to kick multiple 50+ yarders compared to Aubrey, but he is the riskier of the two.
Overall Showdown strategy
It’s nearly impossible to get around playing Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb in this Showdown, so that’s a big chunk you’ll probably need to invest off the top. After that you’ll want to think about game flow and if the Cowboys will win in a landslide or if the Seahawks will keep it close. I tend to think the Cowboys win easily at home and limit the Seahawks’ offense on the whole. That should open up more Dallas players at a cheaper price.
I’ll probably want the Cowboys D/ST, Lamb and Prescott as my core, which also means I’ll might fade Geno Smith and look at Charbonnet and JSN for Seahawks value.