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TCU vs. Oklahoma picks, best bets for final Big 12 matchup for Sooners

The Horned Frogs and Sooners meet up on Black Friday with trying to keep their Big 12 title hopes alive and the other trying to become bowl eligibile.

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel makes a pass during a college football game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the BYU Cougars on November 18, 2023 at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah. Photo by Boyd Ivey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The TCU Horned Frogs will hit the road this afternoon for a season-closing showdown at the Oklahoma Sooners. The game will kick off at noon ET and will air on Fox. At this time last year, TCU was preparing for its first College Football Playoff game in program history. Now, it’s trying to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season against an Oklahoma team that’s playing for a spot in the Big 12 Championship game.

TCU (5-6, 3-5 Big12) picked up a big win in last year’s matchup when Sonny Dykes’ squad picked up a 55-24 win in a game where they scored four touchdowns in the first half. The Horned Frogs enter this game fresh off last week’s 42-17 drubbing of Baylor on Senior Day, a game where Emani Bailey and Jared Wiley both had two touchdowns. Quarterback Josh Hoover has thrown for more than 1,000 yards over his past three games, but their biggest problem has been keeping things close on defense. They’d given up at least 29 points in their three games prior to the win over Baylor.

The conversation about Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2 Big 12) begins and ends with quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who is questionable after sustaining an upper body injury last week against BYU. Gabriel’s thrown for more than 3,200 yards and 27 touchdowns this season, along with adding 11 touchdowns on the ground. If Gabriel can’t go, then the Sooners would likely turn to true freshman Jackson Arnold. Electric wide receiver Jalil Farooq is also questionable due to an undisclosed injury.

SP+ Rankings

TCU: 32 overall, 31 offense, 42 defense
Oklahoma: 15 overall, 10 offense, 24 defense

Injury update

TCU

No new injuries to report

Oklahoma

QB Dillon Gabriel - Questionable (upper-body injury)
WR Jalil Farooq - Questionable (undisclosed)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

TCU: 5-6 ATS
Oklahoma: 7-4 ATS

Total in 2023

TCU: Over 3-8
Oklahoma: Over 6-5

Team Pace

TCU: 2.8 plays per minute of offense
Oklahoma: 2.5 plays per minute of offense

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Oklahoma -10
Total: 63.5
Moneyline: Oklahoma -355, TCU +285

Opening line: Oklahoma -12.5
Opening total: 64.5

Weather

51 degrees, partly sunny, 12 MPH winds NE with 23 MPH wind gusts

Our Best Bet for TCU vs. Oklahoma

Oklahoma - 10

This line has dipped a little bit due to Gabriel’s injury, but I think he plays and the Sooners take care of business. Almost every game TCU plays in turns into a track meet, and I just can’t see them keeping up with Sooners, even if they Oklahoma is compromised. While I’m sure the idea of playing for a bowl game added some extra motivation in the Horned Frogs locker room, there are probably plenty of players who have already checked out for the season. Oklahoma cruises on its way toward a spot in the Big 12 Championship.