Update: Middleton and MarJon Beauchamp are out, but Antetokounmpo is probable for the Bucks. Milwaukee is still the 2-point favorite and the total is 246.5. We’ll maintain Dallas as the ATS pick and the under on the total.
The Dallas Mavericks (9-3) and Milwaukee Bucks (8-4) will meet Saturday evening in a matchup of two teams with championship aspirations hoping to be in the mix by the end of the season. The Mavericks have had a few days off after a win over the Wizards, while the Bucks dominated the Hornets Friday evening.
Star point guard Kyrie Irving will be back in the lineup for the Mavericks after sitting out Wednesday’s game due to a foot injury. The Bucks might rest some players on the second night of a back-to-back set, with the statuses of both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton up in the air. We’ll know more in the afternoon when Milwaukee releases its first injury report.
The Bucks are currently 2-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total coming in at 246. Milwaukee is -125 on the moneyline while Dallas is +110.
Mavericks vs. Bucks, 8 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Mavericks +2
The current line suggests Milwaukee will play everybody on the back-to-back set, although Middleton is likely to be out as he recovers from a knee surgery. The Bucks are 1-1 ATS with no rest, while Dallas is 1-0 ATS with 2+ days off. The Mavericks are also an excellent team at home, sporting a 4-1 mark straight up. Back them as the home underdog at the moment until there’s clarity on Milwaukee’s injuries.
Over/Under: Under 246
Dallas is 10-2 to the over this season, while Milwaukee is 7-5. These teams are two of the best offensively, with the Mavericks ranking second in points per game and the Bucks ranking sixth. However, this is simply too high a total to feel good about taking the under. There’s some uncertainty with Milwaukee’s best players on a back-to-back set, and I expect both teams to be a bit more deliberate in this contest. Take the under for now.