UNLV vs. Air Force picks, best bets for Week 12 matchup

The UNLV Rebels face the Air Force Falcons in a Mountain West matchup in Week 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET from Colorado Springs on Saturday, November 18. Both teams are within reach of clinching the a trip to the conference championship with a win here, given other MWC losses also occur on Saturday.

UNLV (8-2, 5-1 MWC) most recently defeated Wyoming in conference play, 34-14. Quarterback Jayden Maiava passed for 232 yards and one touchdown, and led the team with 40 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Their only conference loss has been against Fresno State, and they’re hoping to reach the Mountain West Championship Game come December. Maiava has passed for 11 touchdowns and just four interceptions this season, two of which came in the Fresno State loss.

Air Force (8-2, 5-1 MWC) was 8-0 to start the season, but have now lost their last two games. They fell to Army in a 23-3 beatdown, and then were upset by Hawai’i, who only have four wins this season. In nine attempted passes from Air Force against Hawai’i, three were completed and three were intercepted. Quarterback Zac Larrier was injured in the game, and is not expected to return this week.

Here’s everything you need to know and a pick for the game.

SP+ Rankings

UNLV: 63 overall, 38 offense, 90 defense
Air Force: 46 overall, 73 offense, 17 defense

Injury update

UNLV

QB Doug Brumfield - Questionable (undisclosed)

Air Force

QB Zac Larrier - Questionable (knee)
FB Emmanuel Michel - Questionable (undisclosed)
WR Jared Roznos - Questionable (undisclosed)
WR Dane Kinamon - Questionable (undisclosed)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

UNLV: 9-1 ATS
Air Force: 5-5 ATS

Total in 2023

UNLV: Over 5-5
Air Force: Over 4-6

Team Pace (through Week 10)

UNLV: 25.4 seconds per play
Air Force: 31.7 seconds per play

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Air Force -2.5
Total: 46.5
Moneyline: Air Force -135, UNLV +114

Weather

60 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 MPH winds W with 12 MPH wind gusts

Best Bet for UNLV vs. Air Force

UNLV ML +114

Air Force is in a tailspin right now after that three-interception loss to Hawai’i, and they will likely be playing without their starting quarterback. While the Falcons defense should be able to keep this a low-scoring and close game, UNLV is 9-1 against the spread this season and playing well right now.