Florida vs. LSU picks, best bets for Week 11 matchup

A wacky SEC rivalry will be renewed in Death Valley tonight as the Florida Gators hit the road to battle the No. 19 LSU Tigers. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET and the game will air on SEC Network.

Florida (5-4, 3-3 SEC) tripped over itself badly last Saturday, falling to Arkansas in a 39-36 overtime loss that gave the Hogs their first SEC win of the season. The two teams traded punches throughout the afternoon and with the game tied at 33 in the final minute, Gator kicker Trey Smack missed what would’ve been the game-winning field goal in the closing seconds of regulation. He would nail a 39-yarder in the first possession of OT, but a KJ Jefferson touchdown pass to Tyrone Broden on the ensuing Razorback possession sealed the deal.

LSU (6-3, 4-2 SEC) had its SEC title game dreams shattered in Tuscaloosa last weekend, falling to Alabama 42-28. Up 28-21 early in the third quarter, the Tigers allowed three straight Crimson Tide touchdowns and fell into a hole. Things went from bad to worse when quarterback Jayden Daniels was knocked out of the game after being driven into the ground by Tide edge rusher Dallas Turner. He entered concussion protocol but is expected to play in tonight’s game against UF.

SP+ Rankings

Florida: 36 overall, 33 offense, 47 defense
LSU: 13 overall, 4 offense, 51 defense

Injury update

Florida

TE Jonathan Odom - Out (Concussion)
WR Andy Jean - Questionable (Lower Body)
S Kamari Wilson - Out indefinitely (Undisclosed)
TE Dante Zanders - Out indefinitely (Lower Body)

LSU

QB Jayden Daniels - Probable (Concussion)
RB Logan Diggs - Doubtful (Upper Body)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

Florida: 3-6 ATS
LSU: 5-4 ATS

Total in 2023

Florida: Over 5-3-1
LSU: Over 9-0

Team Pace

Florida: 2.06 plays per minute of offense (89th)
LSU: 2.22 plays per minute of offense (75th)

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: LSU -15
Total: 67
Moneyline: LSU -675, Florida +490

Opening line: LSU -12
Opening total: 61.5

Weather

63 degrees, cloudy with a few showers, 7 MPH winds NE

Our Best Bet for Florida vs. LSU

Florida +15

As alluded to earlier, Florida-LSU is a wacky rivalry where weird things can happen. Like shoes being thrown for example. 13 of the last 14 games in this series have been decided by two touchdowns or less, the lone outlier being in 2011 when the Tigers buried the Gators 41-11. Both teams are trying to somewhat salvage their seasons after difficult losses last week and I expect a close, scrappy contest in rainy conditions at Death Valley tonight. Give me Florida to cover.