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UFC 295: Best Bets and Predictions for main card

We give you our best bets and predictions for the main card of UFC 295.

UFC 282 Media Day Face Off Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

The UFC returns to New York City on November 11, 2023, for UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira from Madison Square Garden. The main event is Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1) and Alex Pereira (8-2) for the vacant UFC light heavyweight championship. In the co-main event, it will be Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich for the UFC interim heavyweight championship. The main card will be broadcast on ESPN+ PPV beginning at 10 p.m. ET.

The early preliminary card starts at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ & UFC Fight Pass. The preliminary card is next up at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNEWS. The big show gets started at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

Originally the main event for UFC 295 was scheduled to be Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic for the UFC heavyweight championship, but Jones suffered a torn pectoral muscle last month and had to withdraw. Miocic decided against taking an interim fight, so Prochazka vs. Pereira was moved to the main event and Tom Aspinall vs. Sergei Pavlovich was put together as an interim championship fight.

UFC 295 predictions

Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira

The main question here is if Prochazka is fully healthy after a 17-month layoff and recovery from a shoulder injury that forced him to vacate the light heavyweight title a year ago. Prochazka hasn’t lost an MMA fight in over seven years. Pereira is a tough customer and a very experienced kickboxer, but his takedown defense and wrestling will be tested heavily by Prochazka. Pereira showed some conditioning in his first fight with Israel Adesanya and more recent fight with Jan Blachowicz, but Prochazka is going to make his battle, scrambling and fighting from the ground. If he can get the fight on the ground early, Prochazka should be able to keep it there and win.

Prediction: Prochazka to win (+102 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jessica Andrade vs MacKenzie Dern

Dern has had a lot going on. She is dealing with a divorce and the recent shutdown of the gym she trained at. But Dern is going to be well prepared and ready to fight. Andrade has a lot of questions to answer because she has looked overmatched and uncompetitive in three straight losses. Some of those issues can be credited to the former UFC strawweight champion moving in between weight classes, but emotionally it looks like Andrade has checked out. That’s not a concern with Dern.

Prediction: Dern to win (-205)

Tom Aspinall vs. Sergei Pavlovich

Aspinall has only had one fight in the UFC go past the first round. He has finished guys in 45 seconds, 1:13, and 1:35, so he’s capable. Pavlovich has never had a UFC fight go past the first round and he has finished opponents in 54 seconds, 55 seconds, and 1:06. If you’re wondering about the quality of his opponent, Pavlovich finished Tai Tuivasa in 54 seconds and Derrick Lewis in 55 seconds — both top-ten heavyweights.

If both men come out swinging as expected this fight isn’t getting out of the first round. Both men have one-punch power and a history of ending fights early. It’s a long shot to say this fight will end within 60 seconds, but one worth riding.

Prediction: Aspinall vs. Pavlovich Finish within first 60 seconds (+450)