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Update: Butler has been ruled out for personal reasons, and the line is now Hawks -7. The total has shifted to 226.5. We’ll still take Heat +7 and the under on the total.
We’ve got a Southeast division showdown Saturday night when the Miami Heat (4-4) meet the Atlanta Hawks (5-3). The Heat have won their last three games, while the Hawks are coming off a one-point win over the Magic in Mexico City.
Jimmy Butler is listed as probable for the Heat on the first night of a back-to-back set for Miami. The Hawks are relatively healthy, with only Wes Matthews being listed as questionable.
The Hawks are 5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total coming in at 229. Atlanta is -192 on the moneyline, while Miami is +160.
Heat vs. Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Heat +5
Miami won three of the four meetings between these teams a year ago, and should be able to stay in this game as long as Butler suits up. The Heat started slow this year but are currently in the midst of a three-game winning streak. The Hawks are figuring things out under Quin Snyder, though they aren’t much better than Miami when it comes to covering the spread this year. Atlanta is 3-5 ATS while Miami is 2-6. The Heat have the benefit of extra rest, while the Hawks have had to travel a lot over the last few days. Take Miami to cover.
Over/Under: Under 229
These teams went 2-2 on overs last year at this line but I think the extra traveling takes a bit of a toll on Atlanta tonight. Miami’s defense should remain solid, especially with some extra time off. The Hawks aren’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, so there’s a chance the Heat could run up the score a bit and force Atlanta to chuck at will to stay in the game. It’s a relatively higher total, so I believe the under is the safer play tonight.