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The Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a winner-take-all Game Seven of the National League Championship Series on Tuesday with a spot in the World Series on the line.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-165, 8.5)
Ranger Suarez gets the start on the mound for the Phillies, who has had far less success at home than on the road with a 2.38 ERA and 0.6 home runs per nine innings compared to a 5.20 ERA and 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed at home.
Overall down the stretch, regardless of location, Suarez has been at his best with one run allowed in 14 innings across three starts this postseason, including 5 1/3 scoreless innings in Arizona against the Diamondbacks in Game Three of this series.
The Phillies back him up with a bullpen that since July 1 ranks in the top three of the MLB in ERA and their 2.25 ERA in the postseason is the best of any team to play more than two playoff games.
The Diamondbacks bullpen ranked 18th in bullpen ERA in both the entirety of the regular season and post All-Star Break and have a 3.27 ERA this postseason from their bullpen, ranking seventh of the 14 teams in this postseason.
Between the regular season and postseason, Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt has a 5.30 ERA while surrendering nearly 1.9 home runs per nine innings this season.
The Phillies offense had just one run in Game that since August 1 leads the league in home runs per game with nearly two and is notching over 5.6 runs per game, only the Braves ended the season averaging more runs per game.
As for the Diamondbacks, the team has averaged just 4.1 runs per game since July 1 between the regular season and the postseason, which is the second-lowest mark in the National League.
The Phillies have hit 17 home runs in their seven home playoff games this postseason and with having the advantage of both depth and the home crowd, will win this game by multiple runs to make their second-straight World Series appearance.
The Play: Phillies -1.5 +130