The Philadelphia Phillies are one win away from their second-straight trip to the World Series and play host to the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are looking to force a Game Seven in the National League Championship Series.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-190, 8)
The Phillies send Aaron Nola to the mound for his fourth start this postseason, who had allowed just two runs in 18 2/3 innings in those three starts, but the overall season numbers tell a different story.
Nola between the regular season and postseason has a 4.15 ERA with nearly 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed, which improved to a 2.88 ERA with one home run per nine innings allowed at home compared to a 5.43 ERA with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed on the road.
Countering on the mound for the Diamondbacks is Merrill Kelly, who also has some big home and road splits with a 3.94 ERA on the road between the regular season and playoffs with 8.6 strikeouts and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings between the regular season and playoffs compared to 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings and a 2.59 ERA at home this season.
Kelly has to try to tame a Phillies offense that overall has 23 home runs in 11 games this postseason and since August 1 is second in the league in runs per game with 5.7 and lead all 30 MLB teams in home runs per game with nearly two per game.
The Diamondbacks overall this season ranked 18th in the league in bullpen ERA and will need the offense to step up, one in which during the regular season averaged 4.8 runs per game compared to 4.5 runs per game at home.
The Diamondbacks have scored at least four runs in four of their six playoff games this season and with the Phillies leading the league in home runs since the start of August, Monday’s Game Six will be a hard hitting game.
The Play: Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Over 8