No. 16 Duke vs. No. 4 Florida State picks, best bets for Week 8 matchup

A ranked ACC showdown will take place at Doak Campbell Stadium tonight as the No. 16 Duke Blue Devils head down to Tallahassee to meet the No. 4 Florida State Seminoles. This matchup will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET and will air on ABC.

Duke (5-1, 2-0 ACC) was not phased by the absence of Riley Leonard on Saturday as it downed rival NC State in a 24-3 victory on Saturday. Redshirt freshman quarterback Henry Belin IV wasn’t efficient, but still did enough with two touchdowns in the win. Running back Jordan Waters also helped carry the offense with 123 rushing yards and a TD. Meanwhile, the defense was able to limit the Wolf Pack to just three points despite them holding possession for just under 37 minutes of action.

Florida State (6-0, 4-0 ACC) barely broke a sweat last Saturday in its 41-3 blowout victory against Syracuse. It was once again the Keon Coleman show on offense as the receiver hauled in nine receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown in the blowout. Meanwhile, the Noles secondary came to play on defense with nine passes defensed in the victory.

SP+ Rankings

Duke: 22 overall, 32 offense, 14 defense
Florida State: 11 overall, 15 offense, 16 defense

Injury update

Duke

QB Riley Leaonard - Questionable (Ankle)
TE Nicky Dalmolin - Questionable (Undisclosed)

Florida State

WR Johnny Wilson - Probable (Undisclosed)
WR Destyn Hill - Questionable (Foot)
QB Brock Glenn - Out indefinitely (Thumb)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

Duke: 4-2 ATS
Florida State: 4-2 ATS

Total in 2023

Duke: Over 2-3-1
Florida State: Over 4-2

Team Pace

Duke: 2.07 plays per minute of offense
Florida State: 2.19 plays per minute of offense

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Florida State -14.5
Total: 49.5
Moneyline: Florida State -650, Duke +470

Opening line: Florida State -14.5
Opening total: 51

Weather

59 degrees, partly cloudy, 5 MPH winds SW

Our Best Bet for Duke vs. Florida State

Under 49.5

I don’t think Duke has the firepower to keep up with this Florida State team, and that’s with or without Riley Leonard playing. Doak Campbell Stadium at night is an extremely tough environment to play in and I think FSU can cover as a 14.5-point favorite. However, I don’t think the Noles totally destroy the Blue Devils here. We know Mike Elko is a hell of a defensive coach and Duke comes into this matchup with the the 14th ranked defense in SP+. I think they can force a few turnovers off Jordan Travis and make the Noles work a little bit harder for their points. I think the final score will be in the range of 31-14, so give me the under here.