TCU vs. Kansas State picks, best bets for Week 8 matchup

We have a rematch of last year’s Big 12 Championship Game to look forward to tonight as the TCU Horned Frogs head north to meet the Kansas State Wildcats. This showdown will kickoff at 7 p.m. ET and will air ESPN2.

TCU (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) shook off a two-game losing streak by lighting up BYU in a 44-11 blowout victory last Saturday. Redshirt freshman Josh Hoover stepped in for an injured Chandler Morris and had himself a big day, going 37-58 for 439 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions in his first career start. The Frogs established a 31-8 lead at halftime and never looked back in the victory.

Kansas State (4-2, 2-1 Big 12) was also able to bounce back from a loss last Saturday, racing past Texas Tech in a 38-21 victory. And like TCU, the Wildcats also got a huge game out of a freshman QB in Avery Johnson, who ran for all five of the team’s touchdowns in the win. He split time with regular starter Will Howard and head coach Chris Klieman announced this week that he plans on using both QB’s moving forward.

SP+ Rankings

TCU: 27 overall, 25 offense, 30 defense
Kansas State: 21 overall, 12 offense, 39 defense

Injury update

TCU

LB Johnny Hodges - Questionable (Undisclosed)
QB Chandler Morris - Out (Knee)

Kansas State

LB Asa Newsom - Out for season (Undisclosed)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

TCU: 3-4 ATS
Kansas State: 4-2 ATS

Total in 2023

TCU: Over 2-5
Kansas State: Over 4-2

Team Pace

TCU: 2.79 plays per minute of offense
Kansas State: 2.35 plays per minute of offense

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Kansas State -6.5
Total: 59.5
Moneyline: Kansas State -258, TCU +210

Opening line: Kansas State -6
Opening total: 54.5

Weather

51 degrees, clear, 5 MPH winds with 10 MPH wind gusts

Our Best Bet for TCU vs. Kansas State

Under 59.5

This is a very intriguing game considering that both teams have had sudden shifts in their respective quarterback situations at the midway point of the season. K-State did this same exact two-QB system a year ago and while it can be successful, there’s also a chance the offense could struggle to find a rhythm after a few unsuccessful drives. Meanwhile, Hoover showed promise last week but there’s a chance he could make mistakes in his first career road start. I’ll play it safe and lean towards the under here.