Air Force vs. Navy picks, best bets for Week 8 matchup

The 22nd ranked Air Force Falcons will head to Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium to take on the Navy Midshipmen at Noon on Saturday, Oct. 21. This is the first matchup to determine the winner of the Commander-in-Chief trophy. CBS will handle the live broadcast and the live stream will be shown at Paramount Plus.

Air Force (6-0, 4-0 Mountain West) is halfway to an undefeated season and a berth in a New Year’s Six bowl after a 34-27 win over the Wyoming Cowboys last week. The Falcons rushed for 356 yards with quarterback Zac Larrier leading the way (58 passing yards, 111 rushing yards, two total touchdowns). Larrier, however, is unavailable with a knee injury.

Navy (3-3, 1-3 American) won its second straight with a 14-0 victory over the Charlotte 49ers. Not too much to this one, but Navy got a 69-yard touchcdown reception from Eli Heidenreich and a touchdown run from Alex Tecza. The Navy defense gave up 265 total yards in the win.

SP+ Rankings

Air Force: 35th overall, 60th offense, 20th defense
Navy: 106th overall, 115th offense, 84th defense

Injury update

Air Force

QB Zac Larrier — Out (knee)

Navy

QB Tai Lavatai — Questionable (ribs)

QB Blake Horvath — Out (Thumb)

WR Kroy Myers — Out (Undisclosed)

QB Tedros Gleaton — Out (Academics)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023 (check here)

Air Force: 3-3 ATS
Navy: 2-4 ATS

Total in 2023 (check here)

Air Force: Over 4-2
Navy: Over 2-4

Team Pace (Plays per minute of possession here)

Air Force: 1.81 plays per minute of offense (133rd out of 133)
Navy: 1.99 plays per minute of offense (123rd out of 133)

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Air Force -10.5
Total: 34.5
Moneyline: Air Force -380, Navy +300

Opening line: Air Force -9
Opening total: 39.5

Weather

High of 65 degrees with a 25% chance of a rain shower. Winds will be out of the west-northwest at 10-20 MPH

Our Best Bet for Air Force vs. Navy

Under 34.5

With question marks at quarterback on both sides expect a low-scoring game where field position will be paramount. Expect Air Force to control the action on both sides of the ball and do enough on offense to inch one step closer to the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.