Miami vs. North Carolina picks, best bets for Week 7 matchup

We have a ranked ACC showdown in Chapel Hill on Saturday night as the No. 25 Miami Hurricanes hit the road to battle the No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels. The game will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET and will air on ABC.

Miami (4-1, 0-1 ACC)....ok, look. You’ve seen the clips a million times by now and you know the deal. I’m going to break the veil of professionalism I try to show with these previews to once again harp on how idiotic their loss to Georgia Tech was last Saturday. They were undefeated and literally threw a conference loss into the trash because Mario Cristobal doesn’t believe in kneeling the ball for some odd reason (and their defense completely melted down on GT’s final drive). And no, I don’t want to hear about how Don Chaney’s elbow was actually down on the fumble because he shouldn’t have been put in that position in the first place. Just unbelievably bad process all around.

North Carolina (5-0, 2-0 ACC) stood on its business last Saturday by pummeling Syracuse in a 40-7 blowout victory. The Heels scored on every possession in the first half while forcing the Orange to punt on every possession in the first half, taking a commanding 27-0 lead into the locker room. It was more of the same down the stretch as they were able to lock up the easy win. Quarterback Drake Maye went 33-47 for 442 yards and three touchdowns through the air while adding 55 yards and a score on the ground in the win.

SP+ Rankings

Miami: 17 overall, 30 offense, 13 defense
North Carolina: 18 overall, 11 offense, 42 defense

Injury update

Miami

TE Elijah Arroyo - Questionable (Knee)
DL Akheem Mesidor - Questionable (Lower Body)
WR Jacolby George - Questionable (Undisclosed)
RB Trevonte Citizen - Out indefinitely (Knee)
OL Samson Okunlola - Out for season (Lower Body)

North Carolina

PK Ryan Coe - Questionable (Lower Body)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

Miami: 3-2 ATS
North Carolina: 4-1 ATS

Total in 2023

Miami: Over 2-3
North Carolina: Over 2-3

Team Pace

Miami: 1.97 plays per minute of offense
North Carolina: 2.43 plays per minute of offense

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: North Carolina -2.5
Total: 56.5
Moneyline: North Carolina -148, Miami +120

Opening line: North Carolina -4
Opening total: 60.5

Weather

61 degrees, partly cloudy with a chance of a shower, 6 MPH winds WNW with 21 MPH wind gusts

Our Best Bet for Miami vs. North Carolina

North Carolina -2.5

Outrage over last week’s kneeling blunder aside, this is still a solid Miami team on both sides of the ball and its secondary should present a formidable challenge for Drake Maye. Still, UNC has done an excellent job pulling away from opponents so far and in a night environment in prime time, I think the Heels will do just enough to cover as a slight home favorite. Give me North Carolina to win by a touchdown.