NC State vs. Duke picks, best bets for Week 7 matchup

We have a Saturday night Tobacco Road rivalry to look forward to as the NC State Wolfpack head to Durham to meet the No. 17 Duke Blue Devils. The game will kick off at 8 p.m. ET and will air on ACC Network.

NC State (4-2, 1-1 ACC) had its hands full against Marshall last Saturday, warding off the Sun Belt program in a 48-41 shootout. This game got off the rails quickly, with the two teams trading the lead well into the third quarter. The turning point came when State defensive back Robert Kennedy picked off Marshall quarterback Cam Fancher in the fourth quarter, setting the offense up for a touchdown just two plays later. Replacing Brennan Armstrong at quarterback, MJ Morris went 17-32 for 265 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions in the win.

Duke (4-1, 1-0 ACC) is coming off a bye and is looking to maintain its position near the top of the ACC standings. The last time we saw the Blue Devils was during their heartbreaking 21-14 home loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago, a game where Irish running back Audric Estime was able to break off a 30-yard touchdown run for the go-ahead score in the final minute. Mere moments later, starting quarterback Riley Leonard twisted his ankle on a game-ending strip sack and left the field on crutches. Leonard is considered a game-time decision for this game against State and if he’s unable to go, redshirt freshman Henry Belin IV will get the nod.

SP+ Rankings

NC State: 47 overall, 72 offense, 30 defense
Duke: 28 overall, 36 offense, 19 defense

Injury update

NC State

S Rakeim Ashford - Out for season (Knee)
RB Kendrick Raphael - Questionable (Undisclosed)

Duke

QB Riley Leonard - Game-time decision (Ankle)
OL Graham Barton - Questionable (Upper Body)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

NC State: 2-4 ATS
Duke: 3-2 ATS

Total in 2023

NC State: Over 2-4
Duke: Over 2-2-1

Team Pace

NC State: 2.27 plays per minute of offense
Duke: 2.11 plays per minute of offense

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Duke -3.5
Total: 44
Moneyline: Duke -166, NC State +140

Opening line: Duke -3
Opening total: 50.5

Weather

61 degrees, cloudy with a possible shower, 6 MPH winds with 17 MPH wind gusts

Our Best Bet for NC State vs. Duke

Duke -3.5

With or without Riley Leonard, I think Duke will be able to handle its business at home here. The Blue Devil defense is still one of the top units in turnover margin and there’s an opportunity for them to force MJ Morris to make several mistakes here. I’m taking Duke to cover.