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How often do 4-0 teams miss the playoffs?

We break down the history of 4-0 teams and current odds for 4-0 teams in 2023.

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) runs the ball against the New York Giants in the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

It has been a great start to the NFL season as we are already to Week 4. It has been no surprise to see the teams having the most success. The Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers were two of the favorites to win the Super Bowl heading into the season. Many expected a strong season for the Miami Dolphins as well, but they had a bit bigger odds to win it all.

The last team to start 4-0 and not make the playoffs was the Denver Broncos in 2016. A season after winning the Super Bowl, they lost their first game in Week 5 and stumbled in December. They finished the season with a 9-7 record and were three games back of the Chiefs and Raiders, who tied with a 12-4 record. The Dolphins claimed the second wild card berth with a 10-6 record. Even with an expanded playoffs, the Titans would have claimed the third wild card berth over the Broncos due to their head-to-head record.

Last year, the Eagles started the season 4-0 en route to an 8-0 start. They made it to the Super Bowl, but fell just short against the Kansas City Chiefs. They returned most of their key playmakers from last year’s team and are expecting to have similar success in 2023.

Looking at this year’s 3-0 teams, here are their odds to make the playoffs at DraftKings Sportsbook heading into Week 4.

Dolphins: Yes -900, No +600
Eagles: Yes -1400, No +750
49ers: Yes -6000, No +1500

It is no surprise to see these teams have these odds to make the playoffs. It would take a shocking outcome for any of these teams to miss out. As long as Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy, the Dolphins will be one of the top teams to beat in the AFC. Everybody in the NFL wants to see the Eagles and 49ers rematch in the NFC Championship with healthy quarterback play for the 49ers.