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Picks, predictions for Florida vs. Mississippi State on Saturday, January 21

The Gators and the Bulldogs face off in an SEC matchup on Saturday evening.

NCAA Basketball: Missouri at Florida Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

The Florida Gators will take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs as SEC play continues on Saturday, January 21 at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s take a look at the odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook and make some picks.

Florida vs. Mississippi State odds

Spread: Mississippi State -2
Over/Under: 128.5
Moneyline: MSU -135, Florida +115

Florida (10-8, 3-3 SEC) had won three straight in the SEC before falling 54-52 at Texas A&M their last time out. The Gators get stops at a high-level, ranking 13th in adjusted-defensive efficiency nationally. But they don’t force that many turnovers, getting a free ball on just 18.7% of opponent possessions. Colin Castleton leads the Gators in both scoring and rebounding at 14.9 points and 8.1 boards per contest.

MSU (12-6, 1-5 SEC) is also elite defensively, as they’re ninth in the nation in adjusted defense, and turn opponents over on 24.8% of possessions. But the Bulldogs can’t shoot a lick, as their 28.7% from three-point range is in the bottom 15 in the country.

The Pick: Under 128.5

First to 40 wins today. These are two teams that will try and get stops instead of runs, with the Gators pace (65th) being countered by that of the home team (316th). Sometimes it’s just that easy, and this is one where if the total is low, we go lower.