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Betting the over/under for Chiefs-Jaguars in the Divisional round

We make a pick for the over/under as the Chiefs face the Jaguars in the Divisional round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs v Las Vegas Raiders Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jan. 21.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs are favored by 8.5 points with the total resting at 51.5. Below, we’ll break down that over/under from a betting perspective.

Over/under pick: Chiefs vs. Jaguars

The Chiefs and Jaguars met in Kansas City earlier this year (Nov. 13), and the Chiefs won the game 27-17. Coincidentally, the total for that game was also 51.5, and it fell under by 7.5 points.

The Chiefs are known as an offensive team, but perhaps the bookmakers have overreacted this season. Kansas City is 6-2 to the under at home and 7-5 to the under against AFC opponents.

The Jaguars went under the total in three straight games to finish the season before their 31-30 shootout victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round went over 46.5 total points. Jacksonville is 8-5 to the under against the AFC this season but 3-6 to the under on the road.

Most of the trends point to the under in this game, and there’s a good chance this Divisional Round matchup ends up with a similar score (27-17) as the first meeting between these teams. The Chiefs' defense has allowed more than 17 points just once in their last five home games, and there’s a possibility that trend continues on Saturday.

The Pick: Under 51.5