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Early pick against the spread for Jaguars-Chiefs Divisional game in 2023 NFL playoffs

We give our early pick against the spread as odds open for Jaguars and Chiefs in 2023 NFL Divisional Round.

Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs shakes hands with Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars after the Chiefs defeated the Jaguars 27-17 at Arrowhead Stadium on November 13, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET. This will be a rematch from Week 9, when the Jaguars came into Kansas City and lost 27-17. IN that game, the Chiefs got off to a hot start, and had a 20-0 lead in the second quarter and a 27-10 lead in the third. The Jaguars did make it look closer with a late touchdown, but the Chiefs controlled the game.

The game was marred with a helmet-to-helmet hit on WR Juju Smith-Schuster by Jaguars safety Andre Cisco. Smith-Schuster was knocked unconscious and ended up missing one games due to the concussion.

Opening point spread: Chiefs -9
Opening point total: 51.5
Opening moneyline: Chiefs -425, Jaguars +340

Early pick ATS: Jaguars +9

The Chiefs have played a lot of close games this season on their way to a 14-3 record. On the year they’re average margin of victory is still up near the top at 7.5 points, but they haven’t been blowing out teams this year. We know that Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars don’t give up and not just based on their ability to win last week after getting down 27-0. Nine points is probably too much for a team that has shown an ability to win games in the fourth quarter and should be loose as big underdogs.