The Buffalo Bills beat the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football to open the new NFL season, but that wasn’t the highlight of the night for one DraftKings Sportsbook bettor. The bettor turned $200 into $1,400 by making a live NFL bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The bettor made the following live bet at +600 odds:
- 2nd Buffalo Bills Drive Result - Turnover
With 45 seconds left in the first quarter, the Bills were operating out of the no-huddle and had entered field-goal range after a seven-play drive that started on their own nine-yard line.
On the eighth play of the drive—2nd and 7 from the Rams’ 29—Bills QB Josh Allen threw a strike to WR Isaiah McKenzie, who was open on a five-yard in route and appeared set to give Buffalo either a first down or a manageable third-and-short. However, Rams LB Terrell Lewis came charging in hard at an angle that got McKenzie’s attention, and a distracted McKenzie let the ball bounce off his hands and into the hands of Lewis:
The NFL has a player tracking system that calculates catch probability based on factors such as air distance between the QB and the WR, yards of separation between the receiver and the closest defender, the time between the snap of the ball and the pass, and more. According to the NFL’s tracking system, Allen’s interception had a catch probability of about 83% based on factors such as yards of separation and air distance. This will show up as a turnover for Allen in the box score, but the turnover was clearly on McKenzie.
Allen’s accuracy was strong on opening night, and he ended up outperforming his expected completion percentage for the game by about 12 percentage points based on some of the factors mentioned above, such as time to throw, yards of separation and air distance. Allen’s expected completion percentage for the game sat at about 72%, but Allen ended up completing 26 of his 31 pass attempts, good for an 84% rate.
On the opposite side of the field, Rams QB Matthew Stafford was not as accurate. Stafford underperformed his expected completion percentage by about seven percentage points and threw three interceptions. Stafford could be dealing with the effects of an elbow injury to his throwing arm, which required a procedure in the offseason and is apparently still causing pain.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
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