This article originally appeared on MLB.com: Here are 5 wise wagers for this weekend’s games
With September baseball in full swing, we’re focusing on games featuring at least one potential playoff team while assessing the best MLB bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook this weekend.
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Manager Aaron Boone is trying to get his guys back on track, but they’ll face a right-hander on Saturday who has done well against them throughout their largely successful 2022 campaign.
Kluber has worked his way through six innings in each of his three outings vs. the Yankees. He doesn’t need to last that long to hit the over on this prop, but he has made it through six frames in 15 of his 25 starts this season. He’s also gone over this total in one additional outing — his lone 5 2/3-inning outing of 2022, which came back on June 25.
A big reason for Kluber’s success has been his ability to limit walks and New York is among the bottom six in walk rate against right-handed pitching since mid-August. Just as importantly, the Yankees have a .104 ISO against right-handed pitching during that timeframe.
The A’s have won two of Adam Oller’s past three outings. That still only makes them 4-8 in the right-hander’s 12 starts this season. Outside of his first two starts — in which he combined for 4 2/3 innings — each of those losses have been by multiple runs. With Baltimore ranked among the top 10 in ISO against righties since mid-August, Oller is in for another rough outing.
Austin Voth shouldn’t run into the same issue. Oakland is 23rd in ISO against righties since mid-August. And, unlike Oller, Voth has been in excellent form for some time — posting a 2.25 ERA since the All-Star break.
Now, that’s only led to a 4-3 record for the O’s in those outings, but one loss came vs. the Blue Jays and another was at the hands of Justin Verlander and the tough Houston bullpen. Also, each of those four wins have been by multiple runs.
Roansy Contreras always gives the Pirates a shot, even against a tough Blue Jays team like the one they’re dealing with right now. Although the Pittsburgh right-hander’s 3.78 home ERA is a tick higher than his 3.38 road ERA, the former is still a good number. Also, opponents are hitting .214 with a .714 OPS against Contreras in Pittsburgh — and both of those marks are lower than his road numbers.
Toronto also isn’t hitting particularly well against right-handed pitching as of late. Since mid-August, the Jays have a .137 ISO against righties. They also have a 53.2 percent ground-ball rate on the road against right-handers during that timeframe. That should help Contreras, who’s been more of a fly-ball pitcher this season than he’s been in the past.
The Blue Jays will employ a bullpen day on Saturday, so there aren’t handedness splits to assess. The stat to note when looking at Pittsburgh’s offense: They were shut out on Friday and they’ve scored five-plus runs in five of the last eight games they’ve played after being held scoreless.
This is a surprising number. Patrick Corbin is coming off two good outings, but he’s gone over this number in 17 of his 26 starts this season. It only gets worse when you focus on his performances on the road, where he’s given up three-plus runs in 10 of 12 chances.
When looking at overall stats, the Mets don’t look like the most challenging opponent for opposing left-handed pitching. But when you focus on their play at home, the Mets have one of the better lineups against lefties, ranking 12th in home ISO against left-handers this season. And if you look at their play since mid-August, the Mets have a .198 ISO and 37.3 percent hard-contact rate against lefties at Citi Field.
The Phillies and Giants have been among the 10 toughest lineups for left-handed pitching this season in terms of ISO. Both lineups have seen a dip in power as of late, but there’s a split that indicates Philadelphia has the advantage on Sunday.
Philadelphia’s recent struggles against lefties have come at home, not on the road. And that falls in line with what it has done all season — Philly is third in road ISO against lefties this year. The Giants have been one of the most powerful lineups at home against lefties this year, but they only have a .103 ISO against them since mid-August.
While Ranger Suárez vs. Carlos Rodón might seem like something of a coin flip, considering how the Philly left-hander has raised his game — San Francisco is just 12-14 in Rodón’s starts this season. So, with the way they’re seeing left-handed pitching as of late and how good Suárez has been (outside of his last start), the Phillies are in position to finish this series with a win.
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