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NFL betting systems for Week 4 and beyond

Using extremes to find good NFL bets in upcoming games.

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Jacksonville Jaguars v Los Angeles Chargers Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

One of the best ways to make consistent profits in NFL betting, and any other sport for that matter, is through the use of systems.

Systems are different from trends. Trends tend to be team specific, thus shorter-lived and riskier to follow. Systems are leaguewide, with a fundamental angle providing reliable predictability.

We all know that nothing in sports betting is a lock, but I feel that systems provide the foundation on which successful sports betting is built. They come with no bias and, if built upon solid principles, typically perform consistently or even spectacularly.

One of the key fundamentals I use in building systems for any sport is the circumstance of extremes and how teams react to them. What I’m specifically looking to find out is how teams fare in the follow-up game when coming off of one of these extreme situations. After all, unusual performances tend to either galvanize teams or shred their cohesiveness.

Before we get too deep into the season and miss out on some golden opportunities, I figured it would be a good time to share some NFL extreme betting systems that I was unable to uncover from studying the last 10+ years of games.

There are 17 systems in this report. In Nos. 10 through 12, you’ll find games that fit the system this week.

Huge divisional upsets

1. Teams that lose outright as double-digit favorites to division rivals have bounced back with a 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS (78.6%) record in the next game since 2015.

Nothing wakes a team up faster than being taken down as a heavy favorite by a division rival. For at least one week, the urgency level is cranked up. Having played as a double-digit favorite the week prior, these are solid teams and can be counted on to rebound. This last happened on Dec. 26, 2021, when Tampa Bay bounced back from a 9-0 loss to New Orleans to trounce Carolina 32-6.

Shutouts are extremes

2. Teams that get shut out have bounced back with a 22-30 SU but 32-18-2 ATS (64%) record since 2012. This includes a 5-3 SU and 7-0-1 ATS mark for teams that were shut out by nonconference opponents.

Most bettors would prefer to stay away from teams that failed to score in the prior game, but that has proven to be a mistake. In fact, we had a winner on this system just last week when Indianapolis upset Kansas City after being shut out by Jacksonville 24-0.

3. Teams off of a home shutout win have been dreadful in the next game. They’re on a slide of 11-16 SU and 8-18-1 ATS (30.8%).

Jacksonville bucked this system last week by following up its shutout of the Colts with a resounding 38-10 defeat of the Chargers. That performance was rare as oddsmakers typically price these teams out and the teams are unable to match the intensity they brought the week before.

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