Judging by the size of most NFL Survivor pools, we should be talking about the halfway point of the season or maybe even further along than that. It is only Week 4 and there are a lot of entrants on the sidelines already. This week brings the largest favorite we’ve seen, but it is tough to feel entirely confident in any team with the way things have gone.
While there is a handful of games that have big spreads, most of the lines are hovering right around the key number of -3. Contestants have slim pickings this week, unless they want to gamble and hope that one of the obvious teams goes down. Given how the season has played out, it could very well happen.
GAMES TO CONSIDER
Green Bay Packers (-9.5) over New England Patriots
It will be the Axel Edward Brian Hoyer show for the Patriots against the Packers, as Mac Jones will be sidelined indefinitely with a gnarly high ankle sprain. Hoyer started six games in 2017, but has only played in 15 games since — with two starts to his name in that span. He has 102 pass attempts over the last four seasons with a 5-5 TD:INT ratio.
Jones wasn’t playing that well with five interceptions in three games, but this is a noticeable downgrade, as the line move indicates. The Packers were supposed to be about a 6.5-point favorite, but have moved out to double digits — and this line could very well go higher by kickoff.
The Packers are 2-1, but they’ve had their issues. Aaron Rodgers has had a hard time developing a rapport with some new faces and the defense hasn’t been very successful at stopping the run. Green Bay has only scored 48 points in three games (and scored on only 25% of offensive possessions), but has also only allowed 45. This game looks like a major defensive struggle, but the Packers easily have the better quarterback and team.
This may also be the last time to take Green Bay. The Packers face the Giants in London next week and opted not to take their bye week this early. They’ll take on the Jets at home in Week 6, which may seem like a great spot to take them, but they will be coming off the overseas trip.