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Khalil Herbert start or sit: Week 3 fantasy football advice

We break down the fantasy football outlook of Khalil Herbert ahead of the Bears Week 3 matchup against the Texans.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - AUGUST 18: Khalil Herbert #24 of the Chicago Bears warms up before the preseason game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Chicago Bears at Lumen Field on August 18, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images

The Chicago Bears will likely lean heavily into the run game as they welcome the Houston Texans in Week 3. Houston’s defense has been particularly accommodating to opposing running backs to start the season, which is an advantage leaning into Khalil Herbert’s favor. But the number of carries will be the deciding factor as to whether Herbert is a start or sit for Week 3.

Fantasy Football analysis: Bears RB Khalil Herbert

After finishing with 11.3 PPR fantasy points in Week 1, Herbert followed up with a 5.1 fantasy performance against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night. Coming up empty in the touchdown category was clearly a difference maker, but what is more telling is the drop-off in touches. Herbert logged nine carries for 45 yards in Week 1 while handling just four carries for 38 yards in Week 2. Herbert may be touchdown-dependent in the Bears' dual backfield, but the dip in carries could become a concerning trend going forward.

The Texans being on deck presents an intriguing matchup for Chicago’s backfield as a whole. Houston has surrendered the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs (21.4) through the first two weeks of the season, and they have given up the third-most rushing yards (163.0) in the same timeframe. There should be ample opportunities for Chicago to run the ball, though the deciding factor will be how the carries are split.

Start or sit in Week 3?

Herbert should remain on fantasy rosters as one of the better handcuffs around, but a start in Week 3 is too unpredictable. Fantasy managers will need to see the number of carries increase or at least be more favorable to Herbert, which could be tough so long as David Montgomery is healthy. After Montgomery out carried Herbert 15-to-4 last week, Herbert should be a sit this week and until the number of carries looks more promising.