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College football Week 4 picks, predictions against the spread

We love college football, and we love gambling. Here’s our staff’s favorite plays on the board this week.

TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes before the game against the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field. Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

College football isn’t just one of the best sports to watch on a Saturday afternoon, it’s also one of the best to find ways to make plenty of cash as a sharp sports bettor. Each week we’ll find the best value for NCAA football games against the spread, total, and on the moneyline so you can make plenty of cash. No touts, no fees, and just the best numbers we can find.

Here are our best picks on the board to get all the dollars in Week 4 of FBS football. All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Collin Sherwin: 2022 Record 5-7

Virginia vs. Syracuse -9.5

The good rule of thumb in college football is betting against bad teams is better than than betting on good ones. And that’s what we’re doing here because Virginia being 3-0 is running such a con game they should be coached by Bernie Madoff. Crop-dusted by a very suspect Illinois two weeks ago, and failing to escape Charlottesville with a win over fellow-fraud Old Dominion, they’re just not very good.

Meanwhile the good vibes in Upstate NY are legit, as proven by the penalty-assisted comeback in a shootout against Purdue last week in great one. Garrett Shrader isn’t a first round pick, but the new offense under Robert Anae is clicking much better than it did under three-time The Worst OC In College Football champion Sterlin Gilbert.

USC -5.5 (-115) vs. Oregon State

We actually have this at -6.5, and despite being the wrong way, we’re fine with it. USC passes the eye test like your average supermodel, and the the backdoor points they’ve conceded with games well in-hand have kept their numbers below

Oregon State is pretty good, and might even be in the mix in Pac-12 North if they can find a way to struggle through the Civil War on Rivalry weekend. But with Trey Lowe still out and and Luke Musgrave down as well, Trojans pour it on here.

Georgia Tech vs. Central Florida -20.5

As a South Florida grad, this hurts to type. But if the devil drops $100 on the sidewalk, you still pick it up. Georgia Tech is a diaper thrown into a radiation fire during a nuclear meltdown, and their marginal half of competence against Clemson could be indicted for fraud by any Peach State Attorney General that’s paying attention.

Knights QB John Rhys Plumlee comes with more questions than Ken Jennings during the first taping of the day, but he’ll be fine against a terrible defense and supported by an effective-enough running game. Take the team from Oviedo, and now I’m going to shower and scrub all the skin from my body. Forever unclean!

Nick Simon: 2022 Record 2-10 (My picks are just vibes and we’re vibin’ at this point)

Missouri ML (+220) vs. Auburn

It’s not a matter of if, but when the hammer will come crashing down on Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin. They were thoroughly dominated by Penn State at home last Saturday and the vultures are circling. Harsin was getting feisty in his press conference on Monday and we’re starting to get reports on him being a non-presence on the recruiting trail. Oh, and starting quarterback T.J. Finley may be out with a shoulder injury, most likely thrusting Texas A&M transfer Zach Calzada into action. The walls are closing in on the Plains and this is a good spot to hammer the Mizzou moneyline.

TCU-SMU O 70.5 (-110)

The battle for the Iron Skillet is quietly one of the more bitter rivalries in college football and there’s an extra layer of hate in this year’s matchup between the two DFW programs. Former SMU head coach Sonny Dykes switched sides in the offseason by taking the job at TCU, a move that has left Mustang fans and players furious. To add gasoline to this building inferno, both teams have top 20 offenses in SP+ heading into this showdown, so expect plenty of fireworks and maybe a fight or two. Take the over.

Tennessee -10.5 vs. Florida

With College Gameday in Knoxville this Saturday and some national hype starting to be heaped on the program, the most Tennessee thing ever would be to brick this game at home. I don’t think that will be the case because this Hendon Hooker led Volunteer offense is the real deal. Meanwhile, UF has PROBLEMS and a lot of that got exposed last week when they were gashed on the ground by USF of all teams. Give me the Vols to cover because this game could get ugly.

Grace McDermott: 2022 Record 5-7

Baylor +2.5 vs. Iowa State (-110)

The only time Iowa State has faced an even semi-legit opponent this year (which is a generous way to describe Iowa), they put up ten points. Sure, they struggle with the Hawkeyes every year, but Baylor, despite that overtime loss to BYU, is a solid team that should be able to put pressure on Dekkers. The Bears cover, and a moneyline bet on Baylor might not be a bad choice here either.

USC -6 vs. Oregon State

I think USC’s a lot better than everyone’s giving them credit for, and that’s keeping in mind that people are giving them a decent amount of credit. They’re kind of going with the old Big 12 screw-defense, just-outscore-your-opponent strategy, and it’s working for them. Oregon State’s offense is good, but the Trojans are just going to be better. USC to cover by at least a touchdown.

Texas -6.5 vs. Texas Tech (-110)

This Texas team has already proved itself after that Alabama game. Texas Tech lost 27-14 to NC State last weekend, and I don’t think that they’ll give the Longhorns too much of a problem. Not to mention that Quinn Ewers was back at practice this week — even if he doesn’t play, which he shouldn’t need to, things are looking back on track. Texas by a touchdown or more this Saturday.

Chinmay Vaidya: 2022 Record 7-5

Ohio State -19 vs. Wisconsin (-110)

The Buckeyes might’ve gotten a bigger challenge from the Badgers if this game was in Camp Randall but I don’t see Wisconsin having the firepower to keep up with Ohio State. After a slow start in the opener against Notre Dame, the Buckeyes have been flying offensively and cruise past a Wisconsin team struggling to put points on the board.

USC -6 vs. Oregon State (-110)

The Trojans have been on fire to kick off the Lincoln Riley era, and it’s hard to see anyone in the Pac-12 stopping them. Caleb Williams is slowly building a great Heisman case, and USC’s skill players are a tough matchup for Oregon State. I’ll take the Trojans against the spread here.

Michigan State ML vs. Minnesota (+125)

This is a great spot for Michigan State. The Spartans are coming off a tough loss to Washington, while the Gophers are getting some love for beating up on a bad Colorado team. The Spartans are home underdog, and I’ll take that plus-money play for a team that has gone up against better competition so far this season.

Teddy Ricketson: 2022 Record 7-5

Clemson vs. Wake Forest +7 (-105)

This could be the South Carolina fan in me, but I just don’t think that Clemson is that good this year. Maybe it is the high bar they have set for themselves, or maybe it is the way that Wake Forest has been playing, but I think the Demon deacons keep this one close. They are playing at home and are playing inspired behind Sam Hartman. Good teams win, great teams cover.

Kansas State vs. Oklahoma over 53 total points (-110)

Oklahoma got some frustrations out against Nebraska last week and won 49-14. They did so with their starters not playing a large portion of the second half because they weren’t needed. Kansas State is talented enough to force the starters to stay on the field, which only benefits the over getting hit. The Sooners are at home and will look to make a statement win on Saturday.

Arkansas (+105 ML) vs. Texas A&M

Alright KJ Jefferson, don’t let me down. Arkansas and Texas A&M have both had shaky performances recently, but I like the Razorbacks this weekend. While you watch Arkansas take down the Aggies, you can also keep track of how many times the announcers refer to Raheim Sanders as “Rocket” as he runs all night. *insert woo pig chant here.

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