AJ Dillon start or sit: Week 1 fantasy football advice

The Green Bay Packers open the 2022 NFL season against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 on Sunday afternoon. With question marks surrounding the wide receiver group in Green Bay, we should expect the Packers to run the ball plenty this season. One half of a two-headed monster in the backfield is AJ Dillon, who could be primed for a breakout season. Let’s look at his outlook against the Vikings this week.

Fantasy Football analysis: Packers RB AJ Dillon

Last season, Dillon and RB Aaron Jones formed a formidable duo at running back for the Packers. Jones was coming off another 1,000-yard season with nine TDs and expected to lead the backfield again. Dillon had been drafted in 2020 and was used scarcely in his rookie season.

Dillon took a big jump in Year 2, rushing for over 800 yards with five TDs. As is with most talented skill position players in the NFL, a Year 3 jump is also expected. Jones was unable to outrush Dillon last season, though the vet had more work in the passing game. Entering 2022, the Packers are expected to have another similar split in the backfield.

In Week 1, we should see Dillon get most of the tough yards and be in there for short yardage situations. With the lack of receivers, the Packers should use a lot of two-RB sets and could even split Dillon and/or Jones out at receiver. Jones makes more sense for that role, so most of Dillon’s work should come on the ground.

Start or sit in Week 1?

Start. Dillon makes the most sense as a FLEX play than an RB2. He ran for 118 yards on 25 attempts for two TDs in two games vs. the Vikings last season. Dillon also added eight catches for 64 yards. That was while the Packers had Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The Packers should run the ball more and Dillon should see around 10-15 touches on the ground with a few targets.