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MLB Picks for September 10 and 11: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for this weekend’s MLB betting card.

Syndication: Arizona Republic Joe Rondone / USA TODAY NETWORK

This article originally appeared on Here are 5 wise wagers for this weekend’s games

With September baseball in full swing, we’re focusing on games featuring at least one potential playoff team while assessing the best MLB bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook this weekend.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

A few favorites stand out on DraftKings Sportsbook this weekend, so we’ll find a few ways to back them while still looking for a quality payout.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.


Guardians at Twins

The wager: Triston McKenzie over 5.5 strikeouts

Line: +100 (Bet $100 to win $100)

Ever since Byron Buxton hit the injured list, the Twins have been a bit more strikeout-happy against right-handed pitching. On the year, they’re in the middle of the pack in strikeout rate against righties. But in the time Buxton has been sidelined, they have the 10th-highest K rate against righties (24.5 percent).

That bodes well for McKenzie, who punched out seven when he last saw the Twins on June 27. On the year, the Cleveland right-hander has struck out six-plus in 15 of his 26 starts. Five of those outings have come during his last eight. Another interesting trend to note: McKenzie has only punched out below six in back-to-back starts once this season and he’s coming off a five-strikeout performance.

Cardinals at Pirates

The wager: Cardinals minus 1.5 runs

Line: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

The Pirates took it to the Cardinals on Friday, but that puts St. Louis in a good spot to cover on Saturday. Pittsburgh is 21-29 on the run line following a win. The Cardinals, who have been one of the best teams on the run line in general this season, are 38-19 on the run line following a loss.

Jack Flaherty is on the bump for St. Louis and he did very well in his return. That didn’t result in a win, but he has a chance to pull off a similar sort of performance and give his offense a chance to cover on Saturday. The Pirates have a .125 ISO and 27.2 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since mid-August.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, are thriving against right-handed pitchers, posting a .178 ISO since mid-August. JT Brubaker had some bright spots last month, but he also gave up six runs to Atlanta and got tagged for three runs over four frames vs. Baltimore. More importantly, the Pirates are 8-17 in his 2022 starts. Of those 17 losses, Pittsburgh has lost by multiple runs 12 times.

D-backs at Rockies

The wager: Total over 11.5 runs

Line: +100 (Bet $100 to win $100)

This is technically an alternate total as of this writing — the current total is 11 runs even. But whether the total is 11 or 11.5, 12 runs need to be scored in this game for this pick to hit. Might as well recoup a little juice.

It’s been a rough go for Madison Bumgarner. His numbers are even worse on the road, which makes the fact he’s a fly-ball pitcher in Coors Field less settling — or more settling if you’re looking for Saturday’s over to hit. Although Bumgarner had a decent showing in his last start, that came on the heels of a bumpy August. Last month, he gave up 27 earned runs over 26 1/3 innings. One of those rough outings came against the Rockies, but it wasn’t even at Coors Field.

Similar to the Rockies preferring a left-handed pitcher (.194 ISO since mid-August), the D-backs prefer righties (.177 ISO since mid-August). José Ureña has logged some quality outings for Colorado, but he’s been hit hard more often than not. He’s coming off a seven-run road outing (six earned) against the Reds and he gave up nine runs in just 1 1/3 the last time he threw at Coors Field. That nine-run performance helped bring his home ERA as a member of the Rockies up to 7.76 for the year.


Orioles vs. Red Sox

The wager: Orioles moneyline

Line: -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

Kyle Bradish has not been as good at home as he’s been on the road this season — which is why the Orioles are only 5-5 in his Camden Yards starts, as opposed to being 7-1 in his starts away from Baltimore. However, he recently faced the Red Sox at home and was one out away from a quality start. That outing was part of a six-game stretch in which he posted a 2.52 ERA. His streak didn’t extend to seven because of Bradish’s recent run-in with the Blue Jays, but Boston hasn’t exactly been up to Toronto’s level this year.

Plus, 2022 hasn’t exactly been Rich Hill’s year. Nor has September been his month. After somewhat salvaging a rough August with an 11-strikeout performance against the Rays, Hill started the month with a four-run, four-inning performance. He followed that up with a five-run, four-inning performance. Now, Hill does have better season-long road numbers, but a 3.99 ERA isn’t exactly comforting. Also, if you take April out of the equation, Hill has a 4.50 road ERA.

D-backs at Rockies

The wager: D-backs minus 1.5 runs

Line: +100 (Bet $100 to win $100)

Not many pitchers can deal at Coors Field, but Zac Gallen has managed to scatter three runs over 13 innings in Colorado this season. The one time the Rockies got to him was actually in Arizona, but that also came right after Gallen had seen Colorado in his previous outing — always a tough scenario for pitchers. Despite churning out three quality starts against the Rockies in 2022 (one came at home), Arizona is only 2-2 in Gallen’s starts against Colorado. However, they covered in both of those wins, as they’ve done in 14 of the 17 wins they’ve logged across Gallen’s 26 starts.

Gallen is also extremely hot right now, boasting a scoreless streak of 41 1/3 innings, the eighth-longest in MLB history.

Meanwhile, Ryan Feltner is essentially on the other end of the spectrum. The Colorado right-hander — the preferred handedness for Arizona hitters — has only helped the Rockies win three games. Of the 11 times they’ve lost when he started (he has one relief appearance), Colorado has lost by multiple runs seven times — one instance being an Aug. 14 meeting with this D-backs squad.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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