This article originally appeared on MLB.com: Here are 5 wise wagers for Tuesday’s games
Quite a few pitcher props on DraftKings Sportsbook stand out as good plays for Tuesday’s MLB action.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Zach Wheeler over 19.5 outs recorded -125
The Marlins smoked Wheeler when they met up back in April, but those rough days are long behind the Philadelphia right-hander. After struggling through the season’s opening month, Wheeler has posted a 2.12 ERA and 2.70 FIP since May. The strong shift has been the result of a 28.2% strikeout rate, 45% ground-ball rate and 22.5% soft-contact rate during that span.
In those 16 starts, Wheeler has gone over this outs total nine times. Five of those occurrences have come in his last six starts, with the lone exception coming against an impressive Blue Jays lineup. Miami’s offense has been nothing like Toronto’s, posting a .058 ISO, 44.8% ground-ball rate and 19.6% line-drive rate against right-handed pitching since mid-July.
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pete Alonso over 1.5 total bases -110
Alonso saw his little six-game hitting streak come to an end in the series opener vs. the Reds, going 0-for-4 in the Mets’ 5-1 win. But New York’s big bat is in a spot to begin another streak Tuesday — and perhaps launch his 30th home run of the season.
Since the start of July, Alonso has a .321 ISO and .429 average against left-handed pitching. That’s been the result of a lot of quality contact: 38.1% hard-contact rate, 28.6% line-drive rate and 33.3% fly-ball rate.
Mike Minor should present Alonso with chances for more big hits. Over his last five starts, Cincinnati the left-hander has given up five home runs and nine doubles to righty bats. That’s been the result of his inability to induce grounders (19%) and limit hard contact (36.2%). With Minor’s fly-ball rate against righties being 51.7% during this recent stretch, Alonso is a quality home run play at +225 if you’re looking to go that route
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
Charlie Morton over 5.5 strikeouts -125
The Red Sox have been striking out more than anyone against right-handed pitchers since mid-July. But even without their 27.4% strikeout rate during this stretch, Morton has peppered the over on Tuesday’s total.
Atlanta’s right-hander has punched out six-plus in nine of his last 11 starts — that’s dating back to June 5. The two instances he went under the mark came on the road in Philly, logging only five Ks in each of those outings. However, he punched out eight-plus in his other three road outings since the start of June. Also, the Red Sox have a 28.3% strikeout rate at home against right-handed pitching since mid-July.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Martín Pérez over 17.5 outs recorded -125
As tough as the Astros are, this number is a bit surprising. Pérez has made it through six innings in 17 of his 21 starts this season. Two of the outings he failed to do so were his first of 2022, so he’s more like 17-for-19 when it comes to getting over Tuesday’s total.
It’s been a while since he saw the Astros, but he’s obviously still in good form. The two times he’s faced Houston in 2022, Pérez has logged at least 21 outs — and one of the outings did come at Minute Maid Park, which is where Tuesday’s game will be played. The Astros also haven’t been striking out or walking much against left-handed pitchers of late, which plays into Pérez having a lengthy outing. And while the Astros have a 42.5% fly-ball rate against lefties in Houston since mid-July, they also have a 17.7% line-drive rate at Minute Maid during that span.
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
Gerrit Cole 7-plus strikeouts and Luis Castillo 6-plus strikeout s +100
Cole’s straight-up strikeout prop total is set at 7.5, and Castillo’s is 6.5. So, we’re dropping both numbers a little bit via DraftKings Sportsbook’s Same Game Parlay function to increase Cole’s value (over 7.5 is -150) while sacrificing some of Castillo’s (over 6.5 is +120).
Cole has logged at least seven strikeouts in 14 of his 22 starts this season. Four of the outings in which he’s logged six or fewer came in April, so he’s logged seven plus in 14 of his last 18. He did see this same Mariners lineup last time out, so there is some familiarity there. However, backing a good pitcher after a rough outing is always a worthwhile risk. Plus, Cole punched out eight over six innings in that start vs. Seattle.
As for Castillo, when it comes to getting at least six punchouts in a start, he’s 11-for-15 this season. He’s peppered that number since failing to reach the mark in his first three starts of 2022, logging at least six Ks in all but one of his last 12 starts and each of his last eight. He has seen the Yankees quite a bit recently, but he’s logged eight punchouts against them in his two meetings on the road in New York. The Yankees are tough wherever you face them, but getting them out of Yankee Stadium will make this task easier for Castillo.
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