Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season didn’t quite go as planned as the Jacksonville Jaguars finished with the worst record in the league at 3-14, but it doesn’t all fall on his shoulders. Lawrence was set up to fail from the beginning, starting with the catastrophe that was Urban Meyer. We don’t need to rehash everything that happened last season under Meyer, but let’s just just say it was one to forget for the entire organization.
After Meyer was sacked in mid-December, the Jaguars still couldn’t find a way to win as they didn’t log their third and final win until January 9th against the Indianapolis Colts. Lawrence had enough pressure on him with high expectations, especially being the first overall pick in the draft, but any rookie QB in that toxic environment would struggle to find success. Does that mean you should put all your trust into him for next season as the Jags look for a fresh start under head coach Doug Pederson?
2021 season statistics & fantasy finish
Passing: 359 completions from 602 attempts for a 59.6% completion rate, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions.
Rushing: 73 attempts for 334 yards averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. Added two touchdowns and nine fumbles.
Fantasy: Finished as the No. 22 QB overall with 216.04 fantasy points through 17 games. Averaged 12.71 fantasy points per game.
Jaguars offseason moves
While their clear narrative next season is to continue to build around Lawrence, the Jags released Carlos Hyde as they’ll get Travis Etienne Jr. back from injury. With Etienne set to have his breakout season after a foot injury ended his rookie campaign before it even got started, he’ll re-join the lineup as a safe bet for RB1 along with depth RBs like James Robinson and newly drafted Snoop Conner. They also drafted LB Travon Walker with the first overall pick in the draft that should help shore up their defense as well.
2022 best case scenario
Trevor Lawrence makes a huge splash in his second campaign after the underwhelming performance he saw in his rookie season. The Jags finally find their way out from the bottom of the AFC South and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. With a receiving corps consisting of guys like Christian Kirk and Marvin Jones Jr., Lawrence flourishes and enjoys a big boost in fantasy stats as Doug Pederson’s offense is firing on all cylinders. While they may not be an actual Super Bowl contender, a deep postseason run would be considered a big win for Jacksonville.
2022 worst case scenario
In the worst case, the Jags will yet again finish in fourth place in the AFC South, missing out on the playoffs for the fifth year in a row. With that being the case, we’d know that Meyer’s toxicity wasn’t the only problem for Jacksonville’s offense, and some tough decisions would face the organization following another disappointing season.
I’d expect Lawrence’s stats to improve significantly as their passing game will excel with the receivers they have in the squad. He should finish as a QB15 or higher in terms of fantasy, and although will show some peaks and valleys throughout the season, Lawrence should turn in some big performances that will make him worthy of a fantasy draft pick this year.