The Milwaukee Brewers are locked up in a tight race for the National League Central with the St. Louis Cardinals and will turn to their ace on Tuesday vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in a battle of All-Star starters.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-145, 7)
Corbin Burnes has done his best work on the road the past two seasons, registering a lower road ERA than home ERA. During this span, he has a 1.94 ERA and .174 opponents’ batting average — with just five home runs allowed — across 69 2/3 innings.
Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has a National League-best 15 wins and will look to keep his home dominance going. He’s 27-3 with a 1.53 ERA in his career at home, and visiting batters only have a .149 batting average against him.
Numbers do point to regression with Gonsolin’s success. His FIP stands at 3.35, while his 2022 ERA is just 2.12. Burnes, who’s getting 3.1 more strikeouts per nine innings than Gonsolin, has a higher ERA at 2.48 but a lower fielding independent at 3.01.
The Brewers back up Burnes with three different hitters who have at least 22 home runs this season — the only team in the National League that has three different hitters with at least 22 home runs. The entered this series tied with the Dodgers for most home runs per game on the road.
The reigning Cy Young Award winner, Burnes, led the Brewers to a win over the Dodgers in his last start and will make it two in a row over the Dodgers.
The Play: Brewers +125
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