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Why Derrick Henry will go UNDER on rushing yards, TDs and what it means for your fantasy football draft

We take a look at the odds for Derrick Henry available on DraftKings Sportsbook and make our predictions and give fantasy football insight ahead of the 2022 NFL season.

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Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) looks to the sideline during a training camp practice at Ascension Saint Thomas Sports Park.  George Walker IV-USA TODAY Sports

While the excitement is palpable ahead of Derrick Henry’s seventh NFL campaign with the Tennessee Titans, there is also immense concern whether he can return to “King Henry” form in 2022. The two-time Pro Bowl running back is coming off a Jones fracture injury to his right foot, that caused him to miss nine games last season. While the foot reportedly feels “good,” it’s uncertain how high his ceiling can be with his bullish running style, let alone if he reverts to his RB1 productivity. Here’s a look at Henry’s player totals for the season courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, and how we think you should approach them for the 2022 season.

Derrick Henry rushing yards: Over 1,350.5 (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Under

Before Henry’s injury in Week 8, he was on pace to shatter 1,000-plus rushing yards for the fourth consecutive season. He finished with 219 carries for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns — well ahead of the league’s remaining running backs. It’s always difficult to determine if a player can surpass his rushing total prediction, especially after suffering a nagging injury.

The Titans lost A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, but picked up Robert Woods from the Los Angeles Rams. There’s concern with the team’s O-line, as well as how head coach Mike Vrabel plans to utilize his backfield. That said, it’s encouraging that Henry returned in the playoffs last year, and posted an impressive stat line to boot (20 rushes for 62 yards and one touchdown). It’d be too optimistic to believe that he will make it through the requisite amount of games without sustaining some sort of hiccup down the road. Taking his current Over for rushing yards seems like a fool’s errand. It’d be beneficial to monitor his performances in Weeks 1-2 before we can completely buy in.

Derrick Henry rushing TDs: Over 13.5 (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Under

Again, even for a special RB talent like Henry, the experts aren’t doing bettors any favors with his preseason totals this year. Though potentially on the cusp of a bounce-back campaign, he’s scored more than 13 touchdowns in a season just two times in his six-year career.

Fantasy football insight

Henry is being drafted as the overall RB4, per FantasyPros. With the existing injury concerns, it’s hard to make a legit argument for the 28-year-old ball carrier to be ranked any higher. He runs amongst the best in the NFL when he’s at full health, however, so keep an eye on how far he falls in Round 1.

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