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Nick Chubb has rushed for over 1,000 yards in the past three seasons and was just four yards shy of hitting 1k in his rookie year. In 2021, Chubb rushed for 1,259 yards with eight touchdowns in 14 games. His best rushing year came in 2019 when he rushed for 1,494 yards in 16 games. With a lot of uncertainty with the Deshaun Watson suspension, Jacoby Brissett will likely get the start for at least six games, which would have an impact on Chubb’s rushing numbers.
Below we explore the rushing yard and rushing touchdown lines set at DraftKings Sportsbook.
1,200.5 rushing yards: Over (-115) or Under (-115)
Our pick: Over
The Cleveland Browns are uncertain when Watson is going to be able to suit up and play this season. There are recent reports that running back Kareem Hunt has requested a trade out of Cleveland. Both of these are major factors for Chubb’s rushing total in the 2022 season. The biggest competition for Chubb could be D’Ernest Johnson. In 2021, Johnson had 100 attempts for 534 yards and four touchdowns in 17 games. Assuming Chubb can remain healthy for 17 games, this line seems very low even if he is sharing the backfield with Hunt and/or Johnson.
10.5 receiving|rushing|passing TDs: Over (-105) or Under (-125)
Our pick: Over
Chubb rushed for 12 touchdowns in 2020 but has not rushed for over eight touchdowns in any of his additional three NFL seasons. In 2021, the Browns had 20 rushing touchdowns, Chubb accounted for eight of those, Johnson four and Hunt two. Even with Johnson and Hunt sharing attempts in the backfield, head coach Kevin Stefanski needs to utilize Chubb more in the red zone. I am a little less confident in this over as I am in rushing yards but with the state of the Browns offense, I expect a lot more running, especially at the beginning of the season.
Fantasy football insight
One of the biggest factors in Nick Chubb’s fantasy performance is going to be his touchdowns. If he can continue to rush like he always has but tack on some more touchdowns he should be putting up top-tier numbers and a RB1. This Browns offense should lean on Chubb as they deal with uncertainty under center and give him more opportunities.
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