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The New York Jets selected Breece Hall with the 36th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, and hope that their long-awaited hunt for a star running back is finally in the rearview. The Iowa State product capped off an impressive college career with 718 carries for 3,941 yards and 50 touchdowns. Expectations have soared for the 21-year-old ball carrier, but is he truly prepared to lead the backfield of an offense that has been ailing for the last six seasons?
830.5 rushing yards: Over (+100) or Under (-130)
Our pick: Under
The Jets haven’t seen a running back hit 800+ rushing yards since Matt Forte in 2016, which makes it a bit concerning to see a rookie projected to surpass that total before the season. New York also had one of the worst ground games in the league last year, with only 98.1 rushing yards per contest. Hall is a special talent, but the Jets have also had many like him in the past who’ve failed to meet expectations. Last year’s newcomer was Michael Carter, who only ran for 639 yards. That’s not to say the same will happen with Hall, but the Jets give us little reason to believe their running game will take shape with just one player. History speaks for itself.
5.5 rushing TDs: Over (-110) or Under (-120)
Our pick: Under
Speaking of Carter, it’s possible that the fantasy community might be writing him off a tad early, just due to the fact that there’s a new draft pick in town. Though he didn’t record any receiving touchdowns, the Jets still might favor him over Hall in passing schemes. Carter finished with only four touchdowns last year, and it could be said that Hall could experience similar sledding behind the Jets’ hampered offensive line.
Fantasy football insight
Hall’s ADP at RB21 is pretty enticing, considering the hype that’s surrounding him as half-PPR drafts quickly approach. However, as we’ve learned from watching the Jets, don’t completely buy in to the hype until we see it with our own eyes on the field. For now, Hall’s a great selection as a high upside-RB2 in Rounds 3-4 of drafts.
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