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Why Dak Prescott will go over OVER on passing yards, UNDER on TDs and what it means for your fantasy football draft

We take a look at the odds for Dak Prescott available on DraftKings Sportsbook and make our predictions and give fantasy football insight ahead of the 2022 NFL season.

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Dallas Cowboys Training Camp Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images

The Cowboys were left with some unfortunate decisions this off-season as they were running out of cap space, this includes trading wide receiver Amari Cooper and losing La’el Collins and Connor Williams, two key pieces on the offensive line. The receiving room is also dealing with some injuries as Michael Gallup is still recovering from an ACL tear and new Cowboy, James Washington, fractured his foot in training camp.

Below we explore the lines at DraftKings Sportsbook for Dak Prescott’s passing yards and passing touchdowns in 2022.

4350.5 passing yards: Over (+100) or Under (-120)

Our pick: Over

In 2019 Prescott threw for 4,902 yards and in 2021 4,449 yards. The 4,350.5 line seems a bit low given his past two full seasons but as we discussed above, Prescott lost his second favorite offensive target in Cooper, lost those two big pieces on the offensive line, Michael Gallup is uncertain to return by Week 1 and James Washington, the former Steeler, suffered a fracture in his foot and will sideline him for up to 10 weeks. The positives? CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Ezekiel Elliot, and hopefully rookie Jalen Tolbert. Schultz had just as many targets as Cooper with 104 and 10 more receptions and the hope is that Tolbert can start off strong and become the WR2 for this team. PFF still has this line ranked sixth overall for 2022 even after Collins and Williams found new homes this off-season. I don’t think Dak will surpass his 2019 passing yard total but I do expect him to land close to last year's total.

31.5 passing TDs: Over (-110) or Under (-110)

Our pick: Under

Dak is coming off his best season in regards to passing touchdowns with 37 touchdowns in 2021 in 16 games. Prior to 2021, his best season came in 2019 with 30 and he has not surpassed 23 in his other four seasons. Cooper and Schultz were tied for most receiving touchdowns with eight last season. Lamb and Cedrick Wilson Jr. had the second most with six. Dak is losing two of his top four receivers in the end zone. Head coach Mike McCarthy has also stated that they plan to run Dak more in this offense as he was limited in the run in 2021 coming back from his ankle injury. I expect more running in the end zone in 2022 and taking the under on passing touchdowns.

Fantasy football insight

Dak Prescott is a top-tier quarterback but the receiving corp situation drops his value in fantasy. I would still put him in my top ten quarterbacks heading into the 2022 season. I trust Dak will surprise some people this season given his receiver situation (hence my over passing yards bet) but there are a handful of quarterbacks I'd take over him this upcoming fantasy football season.

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