Buffalo Bills TE Dawson Knox has been an underrated tight end for his time in the NFL. Since be drafted in 2019, his numbers have increased in every season. It seems that him and QB Josh Allen have developed a great relationship over the past few years. Knox has turned into one of Allen’s top red-zone targets.
Heading into Year 4, Knox won’t be the only big target at tight end for the Bills as they signed O.J. Howard to a deal. This may have a bit of an affect on Knox’s receptions and yardage, but not his red-zone targets. Knox is as reliable as it gets in the red zone.
2021 season statistics & fantasy finish
Receiving: Knox had 49 receptions for 587 yards, and nine touchdowns. While the yards and receptions aren’t over the top, the nine touchdown were tied for the second most in the NFL.
Fantasy: He finished the season as TE11 in PPR fantasy scoring. In PPR, Knox scored 164.1 points (10.9 per game), while scoring 115.1 (7.7 per game) in standard.
Bills offseason moves
A big move for the Bills this season was signing O.J. Howard to a one-year, $3.5 million contract. This could have a bit of an affect on Knox’s numbers. When healthy, Howard is a respected red zone tight end which is just like Knox. I think both guys will be heavily included in that offense.
2022 best case scenario
Knox finishing around TE6-TE8 is my best case for him in PPR leagues. He is much more valued in standard leagues because of his touchdown numbers compared to his receptions. He will get you a good amount of touchdowns, but there will need to be a bigger role for him in this offense if his numbers want to go up.
2022 worst case scenario
Howard slowly gets many more targets and Knox has another season like last year finishing around TE11. Howard could also take some red-zone targets away from Knox, which will hurt Knox’s fantasy value. His numbers all will depend on what type of role Howard has in the offense.
I think Josh Allen targets him in the red zone a ton again this season and he score a good amount of touchdowns. I think the relationship with Allen will be huge for him and the Bills offense. I think he finishes around TE9-TE10 and has great touchdown numbers again.