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The Pac-12’s days under its current alignment are numbered with the imminent departures of UCLA and USC to the Big Ten in 2024. Questions loom over west coast league about its future without its two Los Angeles based programs and those questions will persist until more change in the college football universe happens. In the meantime, actual football will be played in a short amount of time as the conference kicks off what could be a very tense season.
Below, we’ll look at a handful of advanced stats for the Pac-12 ahead of the 2022 season.
SP+ rankings
Reigning Pac-12 champion Utah enters the season ranked No. 13 in SP+ projection, good for the top spot in the entire league. The Utes are known for their physicality on the defensive side of the football but the numbers are suggesting that their 10th ranked offense will be the better of the two units. Quarterback Cameron Rising returns under center as well as dynamic running back Tavion Thomas.
Oregon is the only other Pac-12 team occupying a spot in the top 25 while UCLA and Arizona State hover around the top 40. There are already high expectations for USC in the first year of the Lincoln Riley era and they’ll have to prove themselves when starting the season at 51.
2022 Pac-12 SP+
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
| 96 | Arizona | 22.2 (97) | 29.7 (87) |
| 42 | Arizona St | 30.0 (55) | 20.9 (29) |
| 74 | California | 21.7 (100) | 22.2 (39) |
| 100 | Colorado | 22.6 (94) | 30.7 (92) |
| 24 | Oregon | 36.6 (16) | 22.8 (41) |
| 50 | Oregon St | 34.3 (31) | 28.1 (75) |
| 77 | Stanford | 29.2 (60) | 30.2 (90) |
| 41 | UCLA | 38.1 (8) | 28.8 (80) |
| 51 | USC | 35.4 (24) | 29.5 (84) |
| 12 | Utah | 37.8 (10) | 21.1 (31) |
| 69 | Wash. St. | 25.5 (82) | 24.5 (53) |
| 54 | Washington | 25.8 (79) | 20.8 (28) |
Returning production
Stanford has experienced a regression over the past few seasons but could make a slight jump based on its returning production for 2022. The Cardinal have the fifth highest returning production percentage in the nation at 83% and that’s especially evident on offense. Quarterback Tanner McKee is back as well as the entire offensive line.
Oregon State and Washington are the only other Pac-12 teams that cross the 70% threshold. The Beavers are looking to take a step up after reaching bowl eligibility last season while Washington is trying to get the train back on the track following the short, but disastrous Jimmy Lake era.
2022 Pac-12 Returning Talent
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
| Arizona State | 57% | 93 | 44% | 119 | 55% | 100 | 3 | 55.41% | 40.08% | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| Arizona | 68% | 47 | 77% | 22 | 68% | 47 | 9 | 100.00% | 64.57% | 7 | 8 | 12 |
| Cal | 53% | 110 | 31% | 127 | 60% | 78 | 3 | 25.54% | 43.82% | 4 | 12 | 12 |
| Colorado | 61% | 78 | 73% | 35 | 54% | 101 | 6 | 100.00% | 57.02% | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Oregon | 64% | 72 | 59% | 78 | 65% | 57 | 7 | 46.79% | 85.16% | 6 | 14 | 14 |
| Oregon State | 72% | 32 | 74% | 29 | 75% | 22 | 5 | 92.22% | 60.32% | 7 | 13 | 13 |
| Stanford | 83% | 5 | 88% | 4 | 70% | 36 | 10 | 90.32% | 100.00% | 5 | 12 | 12 |
| UCLA | 58% | 90 | 66% | 58 | 50% | 112 | 4 | 100.00% | 54.67% | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| USC | 63% | 75 | 63% | 69 | 56% | 94 | 5 | 31.65% | 74.59% | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Utah | 67% | 49 | 73% | 36 | 59% | 85 | 6 | 80.30% | 60.57% | 4 | 14 | 6 |
| Washington | 71% | 38 | 76% | 25 | 56% | 93 | 6 | 99.47% | 64.34% | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Washington State | 50% | 117 | 46% | 113 | 65% | 56 | 4 | 57.05% | 45.74% | 5 | 13 | 13 |
Positional talent data
Oregon tops the conference with the eighth ranked roster in the country and that’s certainly something a first-year head coach like Dan Lanning would like to have at his disposal. The Ducks have several of the top ranked units in the league including quarterback, where Auburn transfer Bo Nix will lead the charge.
Lincoln Riley will inherit the second strongest roster in the conference per the data, but it all comes down to what he does with it this fall.
2022 Pac-12 Overall Talent
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
| Arizona State | 49 | 86.02 | 54 | 85.55 | 37.5 |
| Arizona | 61 | 84.65 | 26 | 86.86 | 54.33 |
| Cal | 43 | 86.13 | 55 | 86.48 | 46.17 |
| Colorado | 60 | 84.63 | 60 | 85.1 | 48.5 |
| Oregon | 8 | 91.21 | 16 | 89.52 | 12.17 |
| Oregon State | 50 | 85.53 | 71 | 85.86 | 67.67 |
| Stanford | 24 | 87.64 | 27 | 87.91 | 27.17 |
| UCLA | 23 | 87.73 | 29 | 88.63 | 28.5 |
| USC | 14 | 89.75 | 6 | 90.9 | 15.67 |
| Utah | 40 | 86.43 | 36 | 87.39 | 34.33 |
| Washington | 18 | 88.39 | 58 | 86.52 | 27.17 |
| Washington State | 73 | 83.73 | 61 | 84.66 | 55.33 |
Latest win totals from DraftKings Sportsbook
2022 Pac-12 Win Totals
| Team | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over | Under |
| Arizona | Over 2.5 -140 | Under 2.5 +120 |
| Arizona State | Over 6.5 +120 | Under 6.5 -140 |
| California | Over 5.5 -120 | Under 5.5 +100 |
| Colorado | Over 3 -110 | Under 3 -110 |
| Oregon | Over 8.5 -105 | Under 8.5 -115 |
| Oregon State | Over 6.5 +115 | Under 6.5 -135 |
| Stanford | Over 4.5 +120 | Under 4.5 -140 |
| UCLA | Over 8.5 -105 | Under 8.5 -115 |
| USC | Over 9.5 -125 | Under 9.5 +105 |
| Utah | Over 9 -105 | Under 9 -115 |
| Washington | Over 7.5 -115 | Under 7.5 -105 |
| Washington State | Over 5.5 +105 | Under 5.5 -125 |
Returning production and positional talent data compiled by Seth Varnadore. You can find him on Twitter and YouTube at Varnadore Films where he does game film breakdowns of teams all over college football.
SP+ data compiled by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.