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Like many other college football conferences, Conference USA is going to play its last season this year with its current membership. UAB, Florida Atlantic, UNC-Charlotte, University of North Texas, Rice and UTSA are all expected to join the American Athletic Conference starting in 2023. The C-USA will replace them with Jacksonville State, Liberty, New Mexico State and Sam Houston State in 2023.
In the upcoming season, the SP+ and returning production suggest we could see a new top team in the C-USA. UTSA nearly went undefeated on their way to becoming the 2021 C-USA champions. Can they repeat that effort in 2022?
SP+ rankings
The defending champ UTSA Roadrunners have an SP+ overall ranking of 67 heading into the season. While that is impressive, it is actually UAB with the best overall mark for the conference. Head coach Bill Clark is retiring and Bryant Vincent is being promoted to interim head coach, and the Blazers are expected to be carried by their defense.
Western Kentucky is the second-best team in the conference ranked 62nd overall with an offensive SP+ ranked 30th. Quarterback Bailey Zappe is gone for the Hilltoppers, but expectations are high for grad transfer Jarret Doege and redshirt freshman Chance McDonald.
2022 CUSA SP+
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
| 112 | Charlotte | 29.7 (56) | 41.4 (130) |
| 98 | FAU | 23.8 (91) | 31.6 (98) |
| 127 | FIU | 19.9 (113) | 42.0 (131) |
| 66 | Liberty | 28.6 (65) | 27.1 (72) |
| 106 | MTSU | 21.2 (102) | 31.6 (99) |
| 88 | North Texas | 24.8 (85) | 30.0 (88) |
| 125 | Rice | 16.6 (127) | 36.2 (120) |
| 53 | UAB | 28.9 (63) | 23.3 (44) |
| 102 | UTEP | 20.1 (112) | 29.3 (82) |
| 67 | UTSA | 32.3 (37) | 30.7 (91) |
| 62 | WKU | 34.6 (30) | 31.4 (96) |
Returning production
Even though UTSA nearly went undefeated a season ago, they have the fourth-best returning production in the conference. Even with a 3-5 conference and a 5-7 overall record in 2021, Charlotte takes the honor of having the best returning production with 75.34% overall and 82.98% on offense. That offensive rank actually is the 11th best overall among the 132 teams included. The second-highest ranked C-USA team with returning production is the UTEP Miners with 72.96%.
2022 CUSA Returning Talent
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
| Charlotte | 74% | 22 | 83% | 11 | 68% | 45 | 7 | 100.00% | 57.13% | 7 | 0 | 12 |
| FIU | 46% | 124 | 53% | 99 | 45% | 118 | 2 | 50.07% | 36.89% | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| FAU | 59% | 85 | 73% | 37 | 51% | 107 | 8 | 90.67% | 75.42% | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Louisiana Tech | 52% | 113 | 45% | 116 | 60% | 75 | 6 | 1.45% | 65.05% | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | 49% | 120 | 55% | 93 | 53% | 103 | 2 | 75.16% | 35.42% | 6 | 13 | 13 |
| North Texas | 74% | 23 | 84% | 9 | 62% | 70 | 7 | 100.00% | 80.95% | 4 | 12 | 13 |
| Rice | 60% | 83 | 51% | 104 | 70% | 37 | 6 | 40.46% | 61.13% | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| UAB | 66% | 62 | 64% | 67 | 68% | 44 | 5 | 83.04% | 54.22% | 5 | 13 | 13 |
| UTEP | 71% | 35 | 66% | 59 | 80% | 15 | 6 | 100.00% | 67.14% | 7 | 13 | 13 |
| UTSA | 72% | 31 | 82% | 13 | 63% | 68 | 8 | 92.62% | 65.12% | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| WKU | 54% | 106 | 43% | 121 | 66% | 53 | 4 | 37.97% | 44.58% | 5 | 14 | 0 |
Positional talent data
UTSA finally gets the respect they earned last year and is given the best full roster rank in the conference. FAU is ranked second overall which is largely due to their second-best quarterback and running back duo as expectations are high for grad transfer quarterback N’Kosi Perry and running backs Johnny Ford and Marvin Scott III. FIU went winless in conference play in 2021, but with the third-highest ranked running back, wide receiver and tight end groups they should be able to improve on that mark this season.
2022 CUSA Talent
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
| Charlotte | 109 | 80.86 | 113 | 82.76 | 111.00 |
| FIU | 77 | 82.76 | 98 | 82.04 | 82.50 |
| FAU | 69 | 83.83 | 104 | 82.41 | 76.17 |
| Louisiana Tech | 86 | 81.89 | 91 | 83.69 | 90.33 |
| Middle Tennessee | 107 | 81.04 | 110 | 83.68 | 101.00 |
| North Texas | 88 | 82.07 | 109 | 81.96 | 91.00 |
| Rice | 118 | 79.34 | 116 | 83.11 | 108.00 |
| UAB | 90 | 81.75 | 94 | 82.47 | 99.17 |
| UTEP | 126 | 78.02 | 130 | 80.45 | 127.83 |
| UTSA | 78 | 82.7 | 73 | 84.47 | 86.00 |
| WKU | 97 | 80.65 | 93 | 82.47 | 93.83 |
Latest win totals from DraftKings Sportsbook
2022 CUSA Win Totals
| Team | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over | Under |
| Charlotte | Over 4.5 -105 | Under 4.5 -115 |
| FIU | Over 3 -120 | Under 3 +100 |
| Florida Atlantic | Over 5.5 -150 | Under 5.5 +130 |
| Louisiana Tech | Over 4.5 -110 | Under 4.5 -110 |
| Middle Tennessee | Over 5.5 -105 | Under 5.5 -115 |
| North Texas | Over 6.5 +100 | Under 6.5 -120 |
| Rice | Over 3.5 +110 | Under 3.5 -130 |
| UAB | Over 8.5 +130 | Under 8.5 -150 |
| UTEP | Over 5.5 -125 | Under 5.5 +105 |
| UTSA | Over 8.5 +130 | Under 8.5 -150 |
| Western Kentucky | Over 8.5 +120 | Under 8.5 -140 |
Returning production and positional talent data compiled by Seth Varnadore. You can find him on Twitter and YouTube at Varnadore Films where he does game film breakdowns of teams all over college football.
SP+ data compiled by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.