Picks, predictions for 2022 Home Run Derby

Arguably the biggest event of the All-Star break is the Home Run Derby. Sure, the break is named after the All-Star Game, but the derby is on a new level as the game’s best hitters see who can hit for the most power. This year, the derby will feature Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Ronald Acuna Jr., Juan Soto, Corey Seager, Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez and Albert Pujols. The 2022 Home Run Derby will start at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, July 18, from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California.

2022 Home Run Derby picks courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Favorite: Pete Alonso (+200)

Alonso has won back-to-back derbys and is going for his third overall victory as well, which would tie him with Ken Griffey Jr. for the most all time. He has 24 home runs heading into the break and has put on absolute clinics in his last two derby appearances. Alonso has only appeared in two home run derbys and leads all competitors in the event's history with 131 home runs. For reference, Joc Pederson is in second place with 99.

Dark Horse: Corey Seager (+900)

Seager heads into the break tied for ninth overall with 22 home runs. He has a lot of momentum heading into the event as he has six home runs since July 8. This is his second appearance in the derby, with his debut coming in the 2016 Home Run Derby. He hit the third most home run in that year’s first round with 15, but unfortunately, he was matched up with Mark Trumbo, who hit 16. Seager also has the most experience playing at Dodger Stadium, which could give him an edge.

Prop: Longest home run under 491.5 feet (-110)

I never enjoy talking the under, especially when it comes to predicting less-monstrous home runs in a derby. All of these competitors can send shots to the moon, but they have some factors against them. The first is that they are hitting these shots off of batting practice and don’t have the added exit velocity from pitches that are faster. Second, MLB is using the infamous “dead ball” which will limit how far these balls will travel. And the final, and likely most important, Dodger Stadium isn’t a hitter’s park. If you want to argue it is, that’s fine, but we can at least agree it isn’t a POWER park. The first home run hit at the stadium was by first baseman Willie Stargell, and it went 506 feet in 1965. The longest in-game home run since that iconic shot? 483 feet by Mark McGwire in 1999.

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