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Why the San Francisco 49ers will and won’t go over 2022 win total

We discuss the projected win total of the San Francisco 49ers and the chance they surpass and fall short of that line.

Deebo Samuel #19 of the San Francisco 49ers heads to the end zone on a 44-yard touchdown catch during the game against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on January 30, 2022 in Inglewood, California. The Rams defeated the 49ers 20-17. Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images

The San Francisco 49ers had a 10-7 record in 2021 and finished in third place of the NFC West. This is likely the toughest division in the NFC and arguably one of the toughest in the entire NFL. Veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is still under contract with the team so it remains to be seen if Trey Lance will finally be named the starting quarterback or not.

In the 2022 NFL Draft, the 49ers shored up their defense by selecting USC OLB Drake London and their offensive depth by drafting LSU RB Tyrion Davis-Price in the second round. San Francisco didn’t make any large offseason moves other than picking up Nick Bosa’s fifth-year option.

2022 49ers schedule with odds

49ers schedule/odds

Week Date Opponent Odds
Week Date Opponent Odds
1 Sep. 11 at Chicago Bears -6.5
2 Sep. 18 vs. Seattle Seahawks -8
3 Sep. 25 at Denver Broncos (SNF) +2.5
4 Oct. 3 vs. Los Angeles Rams (MNF) +1
5 Oct. 9 at Carolina Panthers -4
6 Oct. 16 at Atlanta Falcons -6.5
7 Oct. 23 vs. Kansas City Chiefs +1
8 Oct. 30 at Los Angeles Rams +4.5
10 Nov. 13 vs. Los Angeles Chargers pk
11 Nov. 21 vs. Arizona Cardinals (Mexico City) -2.5
12 Nov. 27 vs. New Orleans Saints -4
13 Dec. 4 vs. Miami Dolphins -3.5
14 Dec. 11 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers pk
15 Dec. 15 at Seattle Seahawks (TNF) -3
16 Dec. 24 vs. Washington Commanders (Sat) -6
17 Jan. 1 at Las Vegas Raiders +1.5
18 Jan. 7 or 8 vs. Arizona Cardinals -3
Implied record 10-5-2

Why the 49ers will go over their win total

Well, they won 10 games last year so that is...something. San Francisco saw its offense open up with wide receiver Deebo Samuel. If they come out of the gate starting Lance, we will see a new era for this team’s offense. Expectations are high and if Lance meets them, the 49ers will win 11 games for the first time since 2019.

Why the 49ers will go under their win total

If San Francisco decided to continue to roll out Jimmy G or if Lance doesn’t perform as expected, winning 11 games this season will be tough. The emergence of Samuel and the presence of George Kittle are great, but Lance doesn’t have a plethora of reliable weapons. The backfield in San Francisco has been a rotating door and a quarterback in his first year may need more consistency. If the defense falls apart, their offense may not be able to carry them in a tough schedule.

Prediction: Under 10 wins

They finished with 10 wins a year ago and arguably didn't get much better in the offseason. They do get to play the Seattle Seahawks twice, but they have to face the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals twice too. Throw in games against the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers and this is going to be a tough season for San Francisco.

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