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Why the Green Bay Packers will and won’t go over 2022 win total

The loss of Davante Adams as well as the arrival of several talented defenders complicates the Packers’ 2022 outlook.

Aaron Rodgers is a four-time NFL MVP winner. Syndication Usa Today Wm. Glasheen / USA TODAY NETWORK

While the Green Bay Packers didn’t endure the same degree of tumult during the 2022 offseason as they did the previous year, the team still underwent significant changes. The most notable of the alterations — the departure of Davante Adams — understandable grabbed the most headlines, but the Packers also made significant additions to their defense while reloading in the receiving corps. How all those moves balance out ranks as one of the most important questions of the upcoming season.

With all that in mind, let’s take a look at the latest DraftKings Sportsbook lines and predict if the Packers can surpass their 2022 win total of 11.

2022 Packers schedule with odds

Packers schedule/odds

Week Date Opponent Odds
Week Date Opponent Odds
1 Sep. 11 at Minnesota Vikings -1.5
2 Sep. 18 vs. Chicago Bears (SNF) -9.5
3 Sep. 25 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
4 Oct. 2 New England Patriots -5
5 Oct. 9 vs. New York Giants (Tottenham) -7
6 Oct. 16 New York Jets -9.5
7 Oct. 23 at Washington Commanders -3.5
8 Oct. 30 at Buffalo Bills +4
9 Nov. 6 at Detroit Lions -6
10 Nov. 13 Dallas Cowboys -4
11 Nov. 17 Tennessee Titans (TNF) -4.5
12 Nov. 27 at Philadelphia Eagles (SNF) pk
13 Dec. 4 at Chicago Bears -4
14 BYE
15 Dec. 19 Los Angeles Rams (MNF) pk
16 Dec. 25 at Miami Dolphins -1
17 Jan. 1 Minnesota Vikings -5.5
18 Jan. 7/8 Detroit Lions -8
Implied record 13-2-2

Why the Packers will go over their win total

The last time the Packers reached the Super Bowl, they possessed one of the league’s premier defenses in addition to a high-flying offensive attack. For the first time in more than a decade, the team has a realistic chance to do so again in 2022. The front office managed to retain All-Pro linebacker De’Vondre Campbell as well as turnover machine Rasul Douglas, the latter of which might not have transpired without the Adams trade freeing salary-cap funds. During the draft, Green Bay invested both of their first-round picks along the front-seven, landing Georgia standouts Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt. With no discernible weakness on paper, the unit should do much of the heavy lifting this season.

Why the Packers will go under their win total

While the defense looks improved, the offense will have to undergo significant recalibrations to account for Adams’ departure. The passing game didn’t just go through the All-Pro receiver, he monopolized it, accounting for nearly triple the next highest target share on the roster. Even if the Packers hit on one or more of the three wideouts they took in the draft earlier this year, it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect any of them to handle a similar workload as rookies. Meanwhile, the rest of the receiving corps features several role players (Allen Lazard, Marcedes Lewis, and Sammy Watkins), talented but injured pass catchers (Robert Tonyan), and unproven youngsters (Amari Rodgers, Malik Taylor, and Juwann Winfree). Even with an MVP quarterback, the passing game figures to take a step back.

Prediction: Over 11

Only two teams have win totals as high or higher than the Packers (the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, both set at 11.5). That puts Green Bay at the high end of the spectrum, and even the most talented clubs fail to reach or exceed those win figures.

At the same time, the Packers play in an otherwise weak division and face a schedule with few apparent challenges in terms of opponents. The London game and delayed bye week offer some hurdles, but the overall talent of Green Bay should help overcome them. The presence of head coach Matt LaFleur, who has led the team to 13 wins in each of his three seasons at the helm, also factors into the equation. Though taking the under on a win total so high looks tempting, the Packers stand a better chance of exceeding it.

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