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Why the Chicago Bears will and won’t go over 2022 win total

The Bears are set to enter a new era with a new head coach and GM heading into the 2022 NFL season.

Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears rolls out as he looks for a receiver against the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field on December 20, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. The Vikings defeated the Bears 17-9. Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

The Chicago Bears started strong with a 3-2 record in 2021 but lost their next five games and eight of their last nine, finishing with a 6-11 record for third place in the NFC North. After the season, head coach Matt Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace were fired, and they were replaced by Matt Eberflus and Ryan Poles.

During the NFL Draft, the Bears chose to address the secondary, selecting cornerback Kyler Gordon and safety Jaquan Brisker.

We’ll take a look at the latest DraftKings Sportsbook lines and predict if the Bears can surpass their 2022 win total of 6.5.

2022 Bears schedule with odds

Bears schedule/odds

Week Date Opponent Spread
Week Date Opponent Spread
1 Sep. 11 San Francisco 49ers +6.5
2 Sep. 18 at Green Bay Packers +9.5
3 Sep. 25 Houston Texans -3
4 Oct. 2 at New York Giants +2.5
5 Oct. 9 at Minnesota Vikings +6
6 Oct. 13 Washington Commanders (TNF) +1.5
7 Oct. 24 at New England Patriots (MNF) +6
8 Oct. 30 at Dallas Cowboys +7
9 Nov. 6 Miami Dolphins +3
10 Nov. 13 Detroit Lions -1.5
11 Nov. 20 at Atlanta Falcons pk
12 Nov. 27 at New York Jets +2.5
13 Dec. 4 Green Bay Packers +4
14 BYE
15 Dec. 18 Philadelphia Eagles +3
16 Dec. 24 Buffalo Bills (Sat) +7
17 Jan. 1 at Detroit Lions +1.5
18 Jan. 7/8 Minnesota Vikings +1.5
Implied record 2-14-1

Why the Bears will go over their win total

The Bears will go over the win total if Justin Fields stays healthy and shows progress as a passer. He played in 12 games last season and completed 58.7% of his passes with 7 touchdowns and 10 interceptions as a rookie. This is obvious, but it is becoming more difficult every year to win without an above-average passing game. If the passing game makes a complete turnaround, that would be incredibly impressive for Fields considering he does not have much help in terms of pass catchers.

Why the Bears will go under their win total

A poor passing game would be a big reason, and those reasons are shown in the section above, but not improving defensively would become a significant issue. Chicago ranked 14th in opponent yards per play defensively last season and was in the bottom half of the league in yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt. The Bears have put resources to fixing up the defense and if that doesn’t improve, Chicago could be in trouble in 2022.

Prediction: Under 6.5 wins

Without high expectations for passing game improvement, the Bears will fall short of their win total. Fields is at such a disadvantage early on his career with a regime change after Year 1 in the NFL and a lack of proven pass catchers outside of Darnell Mooney, who is not considered a high-end No. 1 wide receiver. This is the worst wide receiver room in the league, and that will be a big reason the Bears win less than seven games this season.

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