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Why the Dallas Cowboys will and won’t go over 2022 win total

We discuss the Dallas Cowboys and their projected win 2022 win total. We also talk about the way they could surpass and fall short of that mark.

NFL: NFC Wild Card Playoff-San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys finished the 2021 regular season with a 12-5 record as the winners of the NFC East. It was their fourth division title in the last eight years. They infamously lost to the San Francisco 49ers 23-17 in the Wild Card round after quarterback Dak Prescott mismanaged the game clock as time expired.

In the 2022 NFL Draft, Dallas selected South Alabama WR Jalen Tolbert. This was a big move because the team traded away wide receiver Amari Cooper in the offseason to create more cap space. Michael Gallup tore his ACL last season and it is unclear when he will be able to take the field in the 2022 season. They also re-signed linebacker Leighton Vander Esch and brought in wide receiver James Washington in free agency.

We’ll take a look at the latest DraftKings Sportsbook lines and predict if the Cowboys can surpass their 2022 win total of 10.

2022 Cowboys schedule with odds

Cowboys schedule/odds

Week Date Opponent Spread
Week Date Opponent Spread
1 Sep. 11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (SNF) +2.5
2 Sep. 18 Cincinnati Bengals -1.5
3 Sep. 26 at New York Giants (MNF) -4
4 Oct. 2 Washington Commanders -6
5 Oct. 9 at Los Angeles Rams +4.5
6 Oct. 16 at Philadelphia Eagles pk
7 Oct. 23 Detroit Lions -7
8 Oct. 30 Chicago Bears -7
10 Nov. 13 at Green Bay Packers +4
11 Nov. 20 at Minnesota Vikings pk
12 Nov. 24 New York Giants (Thanksgiving) -7
13 Dec. 4 Indianapolis Colts -2.5
14 Dec. 11 Houston Texans -8
15 Dec. 18 at Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5
16 Dec. 24 Philadelphia Eagles (Sat) -3.5
17 Dec. 29 at Tennessee Titans (TNF) +1.5
18 Jan. 7/8 at Washington Commanders -1
Implied record 11-4-2

Why the Cowboys will go over their win total

Reports have come out during minicamp that Dallas is planning on letting quarterback Dak Prescott run out of the pocket more often. Combining this with the dynamic duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard in the backfield and CeeDee Lamb likely popping off, the Cowboys are going to compete in 2022 if they can stay healthy. Throw in games against the New York Giants, Washington Commanders, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars and Dallas looks like they are headed for double-digit wins.

Why the Cowboys will go under their win total

17 games in a season and to hit the over of their projected 10 wins at DraftKings Sportsbook means that Dallas has to win at least 11 games. They start the season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cincinnati Bengals. Dallas also has to take on the Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans in tough games. While the Cowboys have played well in their division, both the Philadelphia Eagles and Commanders got better in the offseason. If they don’t split with the Eagles and sweep the Commanders and Giants, double-digit wins may all of a sudden be tough to come by.

Prediction: Push

I hate when win totals are listed in half-game increments to make the over or under easier to choose. I think the line is perfectly set and the Cowboys are going to finish with exactly 10 wins. They are going to be a competitive team, but when you take into account their opponents, it is tough to see the overhit. Dallas also has a number of winnable games that they will be easily favored in making the under unlikely. It is a bold take to predict an exact number of wins, but I think the Cowboys sit right at 10 for the season.

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