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NFL strength of schedule based on win totals

We take a look at strength of schedule based on win totals on an NFL schedule grid.

Quarterback Carson Wentz of the Washington Commanders is introduced at Inova Sports Performance Center on March 17, 2022 in Ashburn, Virginia. Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

The 2022 NFL Schedule will be released Thursday, May 12th on NFL Network, but we already know the matchups and sportsbooks have already set win total numbers. And now we can take those numbers and figure out which teams have the easiest to toughest schedules. It isn’t perfect of course, but taking the opinion of the line setters is usually closer to reality than looking at the win percentages from previous seasons. Win percentages don’t take into account any offseason moves or schedule, whereas adding up the over/unders for each opponent does both.

This season, it looks like the Washington Commanders get the second easiest schedule in the league. This is very good news for them, as last season they had one of the tougher schedules and had a dismal record against playoff teams.

The Kansas City Chiefs on the other hand, have the toughest schedule, which makes sense due the AFC West going all in this offseason. They had a tough schedule last season as well, but they landed with the toughest this year. We’ll see how the absence of Tyreek Hill and the addition of Russell Wilson in Denver, Davante Adams in Las Vegas and some big defensive additions in Los Angeles play out.

Of course, there are plenty of teams in-between the two best and worst schedules and teams will out- or under-perform their win totals, but this method has shown to be the most accurate in judging strength of schedule in the NFL.


TEAM WIn Total Rk
TEAM WIn Total Rk
Philadelphia Eagles 1
Washington Commanders 2
Dallas Cowboys 3
Cleveland Browns 4
Carolina Panthers 5
Baltimore Ravens 6
Indianapolis Colts 7
New York Giants 8
Los Angeles Chargers 9
Detroit Lions 10
Atlanta Falcons 11
New Orleans Saints 12
San Francisco 49ers 13
Minnesota Vikings 14
Tennessee Titans 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16
Denver Broncos 17
Chicago Bears 18
Cincinnati Bengals 19
Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Houston Texans 21
Seattle Seahawks 22
Arizona Cardinals 23
Buffalo Bills 24
Green Bay Packers 25
Las Vegas Raiders 26
New York Jets 27
Miami Dolphins 28
New England Patriots 29
Pittsburgh Steelers 30
Los Angeles Rams 31
Kansas City Chiefs 32