NFL strength of schedule based on win totals

The 2022 NFL Schedule will be released Thursday, May 12th on NFL Network, but we already know the matchups and sportsbooks have already set win total numbers. And now we can take those numbers and figure out which teams have the easiest to toughest schedules. It isn’t perfect of course, but taking the opinion of the line setters is usually closer to reality than looking at the win percentages from previous seasons. Win percentages don’t take into account any offseason moves or schedule, whereas adding up the over/unders for each opponent does both.

This season, it looks like the Washington Commanders get the second easiest schedule in the league. This is very good news for them, as last season they had one of the tougher schedules and had a dismal record against playoff teams.

The Kansas City Chiefs on the other hand, have the toughest schedule, which makes sense due the AFC West going all in this offseason. They had a tough schedule last season as well, but they landed with the toughest this year. We’ll see how the absence of Tyreek Hill and the addition of Russell Wilson in Denver, Davante Adams in Las Vegas and some big defensive additions in Los Angeles play out.

Of course, there are plenty of teams in-between the two best and worst schedules and teams will out- or under-perform their win totals, but this method has shown to be the most accurate in judging strength of schedule in the NFL.